FTR estimates truck orders down 29 percent in May

FTR 2019 truck sales estimatesFTR reported Wednesday preliminary North American Class 8 orders for May scraped the bottom of the order cycle, coming it a lowly 10,400 units, or 29 percent below the slow April activity.

FTR says last month’s total is the lowest volume for Class 8 orders since July 2016 and the weakest month of May since 2009, reflecting a 71 percent year over year drop. Class 8 orders for the past 12 months now total 360,000 units. FTR’s May estimate was slightly below ACT Research’s May total of 10,800 units.

Additionally, FTR says May 2019 is basically the final period for ordering trucks to be built in 2019 and the low numbers indicate that fleets are simply trying to find any scarce build slots left for the year. Backlogs should fall to the 220,000 range, the company says, just where they were a year ago when the fervent ordering for 2019 began.

“May’s low orders were consistent with it being the last month in this year’s cycle. The 2019 order pattern was pulled ahead by three months, so May’s orders are similar to what you normally would see in August,” says Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles. “Ordering for 2020 is expected to begin in June, with several OEMs expected to start taking orders for next year.

He adds, “OEM build rates remain at robust levels. The economy and freight growth are expected to ease throughout the year, applying some downward pressure on the truck market in the second half. Orders for the next couple of months should be a good indicator of fleet confidence about 2020.”

Learn how to move your used trucks faster
With unsold used inventory depreciating at a rate of more than 2% monthly, efficient inventory turnover is a must for dealers. Download this eBook to access proven strategies for selling used trucks faster.
Download
Used Truck Guide Cover