By John Blodgett, MacKay & Company
I remember when this pandemic started, I thought, “I can do this social distancing; no employees at the office for a couple weeks and on April 6, everything will be back to normal.” This is week six by my count and I have forgotten what normal was. I see highlights on TV occasionally.
Random experiences during this pandemic: A commuter passenger train stopping at rush hour in my village, no one gets off — usually about 75 folks get off. Unbelievable amount of pedestrian traffic in front of my house — 90 percent of people I have never seen before, and they all own dogs. Ping-pong, darts, croquet and basketball hoop — all back in operation at our house. I only (knock on wood) know one person (barely) who has been infected so far, and the only reason I know is because he was the first NFL player to announce he had experienced the virus.
Cubs currently are undefeated this year. I received a 20 percent discount for paying cash for a car repair. I am going to put all my COVID-19 Zoom meeting pictures in one frame. I had a call with 10 buddies across the country — I am the only one who can’t play golf (due to a state restriction, not a comment on my ability to play golf). I am rambling more than usual but good news: No fever.
Okay, back to reality and an updated forecast on the parts aftermarket in the U.S.
After a couple weeks of this pandemic, it became apparent that our aftermarket forecast for 2020 was no longer good. COVID-19 was and is having a significant impact on most sectors of the economy and the vehicles that work in those sectors, some more than others like schools and school buses.
Our team completed a deep dive look at all 10 vocations into which we segment the operating universe and the immediate impact and outlook by quarter for the balance of the year. We referenced a lot of input from available resources, including our TEA (Truckable Economic Activity) Report details and history. In the end, there was also a lot of gut feel on how quickly we will come out of this and what vocational segments initially will do better than others.