FTR's Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for November improved to -1.35 from October's -6.07.
The gain was primarily driven by a drop in diesel prices, FTR says, but all key factors contributing to the index were more favorable in November. However, the outlook is still modestly negative through late 2024.
"Unfortunately for carriers, November's market conditions likely were the least unfavorable that they will be through at least the first half of this year barring another sustained slide in diesel prices," says Avery Vice, FTR's vice president of trucking. "However, as we have noted frequently, lower fuel costs are complicated. Falling diesel prices tend to slow exits of very small carriers, which could further depress capacity utilization and deflate any upward pressure on rates. Meanwhile, freight demand shows no signs of improving significantly in the near term. Trucking should see incremental improvement through 2024 but not enough to create any real inflection in the market."
The TCI tracks five major conditions in the U.S. trucking market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry's overall health.
A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. A negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.
