This is the time of year that we at MacKay & Company update our aftermarket parts model (DataMac) with the latest data from our field work and other sources, revising our aftermarket forecast for 2021 and for five years out.
Not that this process has ever been easy, but the last 18-24 months have certainly made the process more difficult. Just when we thought things were getting somewhat back to normal, we now have the Delta variant to add a new twist for the second half of the year.
Outside of the pandemic and related issues, over the last 25-plus years (my experience with the process), our team has included more factors and details to our models, providing outputs faster and ultimately significantly improving the models, mainly due to technology. You would think this would make our process easier, right? Not exactly. More variables and inputs provide endless outcomes and require even closer scrutiny.
It reminds me of an article I read many years ago that discussed how much more free time we were going to have as technology improved and efficiency gains at work would make work and life, in general, less stressful. I think we gained efficiency, but it just translated into being able to complete more work in same amount of time.
An important factor we review in our modeling is the economy and, more specifically, the trucking economy. Thankfully, we have on staff a leading economist when it comes to the trucking economy, Dr. Bob Dieli. In addition to all the economic forecasting he completes as part of his consulting business, he also writes our TEA (Truckable Economic Activity) Report, which is a quarterly report focused on the trucking economy.
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