With many segments of the U.S. economy approaching or within a trough in their business cycle, the immediate forecast for truck sales the months ahead isn’t a great one.
But with an inevitable pre-buy looming and indicators that an economic rebound could begin as early as the third quarter this year, Andrej Divis and Steve Latin-Kasper believe any market softening that occurs in 2024 will be shallow and short-lived.
Presenting at Work Truck Week in Indianapolis on Tuesday, Divis from S&P Global Mobility and Latin-Kasper from NTEA stated their guarded optimism that the commercial truck business is in the final stages of a historical reset. Supply and demand are returning to equilibrium after a funky post-pandemic period. The economy is about to pick up, and when it does, Tuesday’s speakers said there is reason to believe truck sales will do the same.
“I think we could look back at [2022-2026] as a remarkable sequence of years,” said Divis, noting if the market even approaches the heights S&P is forecasting for in the years ahead, truck sales will approach levels never before seen in history.
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Divis said S&P’s long-term positivity for the Class 4-8 market is mostly rooted in the aforementioned economic rebalancing. While Class 8 truck demand rebounded quickly from the sudden 2020 recession, other vehicle classes were more delayed. He referenced the Class 6 market specifically as a sector that is just now returning to the market share positions it held regularly through 2019.
NTEA's Steve Latin-Kasper presents at the 2024 Work Truck Show Tuesday in Indianapolis while Andrej Divis with S&P Global Mobility looks on.
