In the United States, every presidential election is unique. But that doesn’t mean election trends don’t exist.
Speaking Friday at the 2024 American Truck Dealers (ATD) Show in Las Vegas, Charlie Cook, founder of the non-partisan Cook Political Report, shared how in cases where an incumbent is running for a second term, the election often becomes a referendum on the sitting president and how they are perceived by the electorate.
Cook said that’s unquestionably happening to President Joe Biden in 2024. But Cook also added because this November’s election is shaping up to the seventh election between two prior presidents in American history, it additionally offers voters the rare opportunity to evaluate how their lives have changed not just under current leadership but also the challenger.
Cook said polling today shows former President Donald Trump well ahead of Biden in many of those head to head comparisons. And barring any major economic or geopolitical shifts in the next nine months, he said that’s likely to remain the case until Election Day. Cook stopped short well short of predicting a winner — and actually suggested both parties could fare better in November by replacing their presumptive candidates — but said the path the Biden campaign needs to walk to win re-election is a precarious one.
“I believe this race is a whole lot harder for [Biden] than a lot of people think,” said Cook. “The best minds in the Democratic party are scared to death that Biden is going to lose.”
He added, “I keep looking at the polling data and see how difficult this could be for him. I’m actually a little surprised he’s hung in.”
[RELATED: Are you always battling FET? Register for our free webinar for vital guidance]
