FTR's trucking and rail analysts see a soft future, even as 2023 hits peak freight season.
"The peak season is not going to be robust for carriers, even if we do see more strength than we've seen up to this point," says Vice President of Trucking Avery Vise. "We're not expecting a whole lot of [freight] rate strength in the next six months or more."
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Vise laid out a general economic scene that is less than inspiring. Consumers are still spending despite a softening in economic conditions, he says, even as student loan payments resume for many Americans this month. Mortgage rates are also at their highest point since 2002 and inflation remains above the Fed's target rate.
Personal savings is low, but stimulus-buoyed cash reserves are still high, though off its peak levels. Household debt and credit card delinquency rates are starting to inch up, and student loan payments will definitely have an impact on that, Vise says.
"The bottom line is you would expect one of two effects," Vise says, outlining a scenario where people spend less on goods and services to pay the student loans or that people spend the same, just incur more debt.
