Truck dealers and aftermarket responders took it on the chin last quarter. At least that’s what it appears from the responders to the Trucks, Parts, Service MarketPulse quarterly survey conducted last month.
Among dealer responders, the fourth quarter of last year was ranked as a 6.40 on our 1-10 scale where 1 is the worst quarter ever and 10 is the best. That was the lowest rating dealers have given a quarter in two-year history of our survey. The aftermarket also pegged Q4 as its worst quarter since the inception of our survey, with an even lower average rating of 5.70 on our 1-10 scale.
For those who participate or regularly follow our quarterly report, the negative readings should have been expected. Dealer and aftermarket market confidence has mostly fallen since our survey debuted in the first quarter of 2022.
Aftermarket responders have reported weaker business conditions for every MarketPulse survey in existence, with the market falling from 8.86 on our 1-10 scale after the first quarter 2022 to last quarter’s 5.70 reading. Dealer business conditions peaked with an 8.27 average reading in Q2 of 2022 and have now fallen for six consecutive quarters.
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For what it’s worth, dealer responders to our Q3 survey last fall did predict a 6.30 for business conditions in Q4, which means despite setting a historical low at 6.40, the industry did barely exceed expectations. That glimmer of positive wasn’t found in the aftermarket, where responders to our Q3 survey also had predicted a 6.30 average.
Expectations for the months ahead aren’t much better. As TPS reported last month in our three-part state of the industry report, optimism is scant for the first six months of the year.
