Preliminary July truck order data shows market strength
- Class 8 orders surpassed 22,000 units in July, down against June but up significantly year-over-year and 120% year-to-date.
- Limited build slots and full backlogs are constraining orders, not demand — fleets continue seeking new equipment.
- Class 5-7 orders reached 18,300 units in July, up 41% year-over-year with sustained strength above 20,000 units seasonally adjusted.
The medium- and heavy-duty truck order paced slowed in July but industry experts say the month-over-month dip from June has more to do with build slot availability than any sudden downturn in demand.
Fleets still desire to add more equipment.
FTR reported Tuesday preliminary North American Class 8 net orders of 22,000 units. ACT Research followed Wednesday with a higher estimate of 22,100 units.
Both estimates are down about 30% from June, but the data houses note July’s orders were still well ahead of July 2025 totals, and FTR notes Class 8 orders are up 120% year-to-date against last year. Orders for the current order season, measured from September 2025 through July 2026, also are up 39% year over year, and Class 8 orders have totaled 344,823 units over the past 12 months, FTR says.
“With calendar 2026 production essentially sold out, attention shifts to decisions on model year 2027 engine technology, pricing and build timing,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR. “Almost all model year 2027 engines are expected to carry manufacturer upcharges tied to compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency’s 2027 NOx regulation. However, EPA’s proposed revisions to the 2027 NOx rule, published on July 14, introduce considerable flexibility for truck and engine manufacturers to address fleet demand.
Moyer continues, “Under EPA’s planned changes, manufacturers could continue building current-technology engines beyond 2026 indefinitely, subject to the payment of nonconformance penalties (NCPs), which presumably will be passed along to truck buyers. Several engine manufacturers have already announced plans to use NCPs to offer both current and new platforms well into 2027, and others are considering doing so.”
Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, says the July total was up 68% against 2025 on easy comps with improved trucking fundamentals. Comparing against June, he says large month-over-month decline didn’t reflect a sudden drop in demand for new equipment, but instead echoes Moyer’s assessment of limited build slots available as orders run up against full backlogs, something ACT “flagged as a possibility earlier this year.”
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He adds, “Lack of EPA clarity, at least until the end of August, may also be impacting orders, as OEMs and customers both await finality regarding regulations, penalties and pricing before 2027 order boards open.”
The new truck market has other green shoots as well. FTR cites replacement demand, firmer freight rates, improving utilization and a moderate pre-buy to avoid the aforementioned emissions changes continue to support the market.
“Overall, July’s preliminary order volume suggests Class 8 demand remains healthy as activity normalizes from unusually strong winter and spring levels. The next phase of the cycle will depend more on production-related factors than on overall demand, including whether EPA’s proposed flexibility delivers a smoother transition and a longer, shallower post-pre-buy decline in the market,” Moyer says.
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In the medium-duty space, ACT reports orders of 18,300 units for Classes 5-7, up 41% year over year. Vieth says, “On a seasonally adjusted basis, medium-duty orders have remained north of 20,000-unit levels the past three months, a sizable improvement from the 16,000-unit level at the beginning of 2026.”
