ACT Research reported Wednesday its most recent North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook report that newfound economic uncertainty has only added to its expectations that 2025 will ultimately be a challenging one for for-hire carriers, and the broader commercial vehicle market.
“Tractor market demand was already under pressure from uncertainty alone, but preliminary data show the weaker economic outlook is now weighing further on demand,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “Preliminary Class 8 order data for April of 7,600 units, a 52% year-over-year decline, represented a 59-month low, a level unseen since the onset of the pandemic, when uncertainty was comparably high.”
Vieth says if there is a silver lining for the industry, it is the expected delay in targeted [Phase III greenhouse gas] mandates. He says those rules promised to make for a particularly challenging environment in the 2028-2030 period, as different segments of the Class 8 market were targeted.
[RELATED: California kills ZEV purchase mandate for carriers]
“Trump’s EPA, while still on the fence for the EPA’s Clean Truck mandate in 2027, has signaled that GHG-3 is viewed as regulatory overreach and unlikely to survive, allowing forecasts to float higher,” Vieth says.
He also notes, “In addition to possibly seeing some production moved back to the U.S., the industry is likely racing to add as much inventory as they can before tariffs are fully enacted. Hence, while we cut our forecasts and lower 2025 expectations, tariffs and the threat of more to come are actually boosting activity in the near term. As is always the case with pulling activity forward, there are paybacks.”
