By Alan Welborn
The health of your business, of course, relies on the health of your customers’ businesses. Having an accurate pulse on their economic well being means you can better plan your business and improve your forecasting.
I recently had the opportunity to hear what many of the top fleets are saying about the current state of the industry and what to expect in the near term during last month’s Commercial Carrier Journal Symposium. Sponsored by CCJ magazine (a sister publication to Truck Parts & Service), this annual event brings together trucking fleet executives from across the country.
The bottom line of a presentation by John Larkin, managing director and head of transportation capital markets research for Stifel, Nicholaus & Company, was that the next two or three quarters look grim for fleets. However, those that survive this bleak period are likely to prosper.
Here are some details leading to that conclusion and some factors that will affect your customers’ business in the year ahead:
Of particular interest to the aftermarket is the average fleet is aging. In September 2007, average Class 8 fleet age began rising after declining for three and a half years, according to A.C.T. Research. In September of this year, average fleet age was 3.2 years. With a 2009 pre-buy unlikely in light of the uncertain economy, average fleet age could be higher than it’s been in a decade when freight levels pick up. Those aging vehicles are bound to require increased maintenance, repairs and replacement parts.
