By Derek Smith
Even the seasoned aftermarket veterans can’t remember a time when things were this economically troubled with a financial future so uncertain.
By the time you read this – with wild, daily swings on Wall Street, more expected failures among “bedrock” institutions and the culmination of a presidential election – things will have changed.
In what direction and how significant is anyone’s guess. When former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan – considered not too long ago an infallible seer – admits that a financial forecasting success rate of 60 percent is considered doing “exceptionally well,” it is truly anyone’s guess.
Things are tough all over and for heavy-duty truck parts distributors and service providers, probably with very few exceptions, no one is performing up to expectations or projections. It isn’t a matter of not having looked close enough at the market and the greater financial influences at large; it’s a matter of no one saw this coming, at least to this degree.
But trucking is a cyclical industry and it was on the downswing before the rest of the economy caught up with it. Traditionally, trucking also leads in the upswing, but the general consensus is that’s at least three quarters away. The advantage of making a living in a cyclical industry is that going into survival mode is less a panic decision than a calculated, practiced business move.
This issue of Truck Parts & Service includes our annual profiles of Distributor of the Year finalists. Our editors have collected some insights and wisdom from some of the aftermarket’s more astute business owners. They have weathered downturns, though not necessarily of this magnitude, but perhaps you can take some solace or cues from their business acumen.
