The good news is that 95 percent of the time, our economy grows. According to Martin Regalia, vice president and chief economist of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, over the last 100 quarters, there have been only five in which there was no growth in real GDP.
Unfortunately, that probably will not be true in the short-term and it is unlikely that we will get by without a recession.
There are some significant weak spots in the economy, most notable housing starts and problems caused by sub-prime mortgage issues.
But Regalia is optimistic saying, “There is a light at the end of the tunnel that is not attached to an on-coming train.”
Regalia spoke at the recent Heavy Duty Dialogue ’08 held in Las Vegas on Monday.
The business conference, sponsored by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association, focused on the global commercial vehicle business and the forecasts that will shape the future for the industry.
He spoke about a number of issues ranging from the effects consumption rates have on the economy, the potential tax stimulus package and the credit market.
According to Regalia, consumption drives much of the economy and, “as long as we have consumption we will usually be all right.”
The problem in the housing market is not news to anyone and Regalia believes it will be another 10 to 12 months before the housing backlog from repossessions from the sub-prime housing market is cleared up.
