ACT Research says in a new report released Tuesday that half of commercial vehicles will be zero emissions vehicles by 2040.
[RELATED: Research firms: Class 8 orders up for August]
"We forecast a relatively low adoption rate from 2024 through 2026, reflecting the fact that BEV sales of commercial vehicles are still in their early years," says Ann Rundle, vice president of electrification and autonomy at ACT Research. "This begins to change in 2027, in part due to the cost increases for diesels because of the increased stringency of U.S. EPA's 2027 low-NOx regulations. In addition, by 2027, eight states will have joined California in adopting Advanced Clean Trucks, resulting in moderate growth in adoption rates."
Analysts in the report, "Charging Forward," say that regulations will drive ZEV adoption in the North American commercial sector. By 2030, ACT sees 25% adoption rates as nine states that signed an MOU to adopt the California Air Resources Board's Advanced Clean Trucks regulations will have enacted those rules. It is also assumed, ACT says, that improved battery technology will negate battery replacement costs and that charging infrastructure utilization will significantly increase.
"By 2040, we are forecasting that adoption of ZEVs will account for just slightly above 50%," Rundle continues. "Essentially half of all commercial vehicles will be zero emissions, primarily battery electric vehicles."
"Charging Forward" is a multiclient decarbonization analysis of the North American battery and fuel cell electric vehicle market. ACT calls it an economic-driven, bottoms-up analysis done in collaboration with leaders in battery and fuel cell technology for Classes 4-8 vehicles.
ACT says it has developed and aggregated information across North America on propulsion systems technology development, both battery and fuel cell electric powertrains; government regulations and subsidies; electric and hydrogen supply and infrastructure; and crafted a total cost of ownership model with three scenarios.