There’s plenty of uncertainty this election cycle between Republican candidate former President Donald J. Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
First, President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in favor of his vice president. Since then, the candidates have run neck-and-neck, with the plenty of uncertainty as to who will move into the White House next January.
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With this election, the only sure thing is no matter who the president is, the heavy-duty industry will keep on trucking.
Dr. Bob Dieli, economist at MacKay & Company, likens a president election as the equivalent of a five-set tennis match. The first set, he says, went to Republicans during their convention in July. The next set to Democrats after the change in candidates and their convention in August. The third and fourth sets, September and October, are shaping up to be a draw. The fifth set is Election Day itself.
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“This campaign might set records in awkward moments,” Dieli says.
But Dieli also points out brake pads don’t care who the president is. Not that it doesn’t matter, but any political promise is so much hot air until the slow wheels of government finish turning.
“Yes, we have to pay attention, and yes, I certainly hope you will vote, but what’s going to happen, we won’t really know until next February,” Dieli says. Until then, he says, “keep calm and carry on.”
Slow and steady
That’s what many people in the heavy-duty industry seem to be doing. On a MEMA Pulse webinar in October, panelists said they heard of some businesses possibly delaying major purchases until after Election Day, but as far as any companies wargaming possible administrations, Randall Scheps, president of Howmet Wheel Systems, says the short answer is no.
At the National Trailer Dealers Association (NTDA) conference in early October, panelists there said everything feels slow still ahead of the election . Robert Ulsh from Great Dane says he doesn’t see the glacial trailer market thawing until at least after the election.
“Right now, I don’t see a catalyst,” Ulsh says.
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Jonathan Starks, CEO at FTR Transportation Intelligence, says while a lot of people are talking about wait-and-see, the company isn’t seeing it.
“When you look at the data coming in, we’re not seeing that play out in any way, shape or form,” Starks says. “Things aren’t robust, but neither are things really bad.”
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He adds with slower truck and trailer sales and low freight rates, the industry has enough to focus on.
Ana Meuwissen, senior vice president of government affairs at MEMA, says the industry craves stability, something that's been lacking this election cycle.
"Overall, the industry has witnessed the enactment of landmark legislation over the past few years," Meuwissen says. She cited the Infrastructure and Investment Jobs Act in 2021, the CHIPS and Science Act in 2022 and the Inflation Reduction Act the same year, and the EPA emissions standards released earlier this year. "There is concern across the business community of what will happen to these laws and regulations in 2025 and beyond."
The issues
Labor, typically a solid Democratic issue, has seen some change this election cycle.
Starks says Democrats are still on the side of unions, but with Trump at the top of the ticket, there has been a change in tone, at minimum.
“Trump does seem to contradict himself,” Starks says, changing his tone as the campaign identified organized labor as a chance to get votes.
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Trump has consistently called for more tariffs, which he also enacted during his term as president. A Trump/Vance win would probably mean more of the same, Starks says.
“You aren’t going to get any economist to say that’s a great idea,” he says.
However, to attract voters, especially in the Rust Belt, talking about going after imported goods is a popular issue. On the surface, tariffs aim to force production back into the United States, but Starks says there are knock-on effects to consider, including reducing demand and increasing pricing.
For freight demand, Starks says tariffs are a negative, “but there’s so many moving parts, we don’t know how negative.”
Environmental regulations, experts say, are coming no matter who wins.
A Trump White House could slow down emissions and other rules, “but I don’t think it goes away,” Starks says.
The OEM panel at NTDA agreed.
“The biggest concern is the ones they haven’t told us about yet,” Ulsh said, calling environmental regulations the 800-lb., gorilla in the room.
“It starts with the power unit and trickles down to us,” adds Bill McKenzie, MAC Trailers. “These trucks are getting so heavy and so expensive, we’re trying to follow suit. We’re trying to get lighter.”
A Harris administration, likewise, wouldn’t put on the brakes, but neither could they change much. As California attorney general, Harris defended the California Air Resources Board, defeating lawsuits against the Truck and Bus Rule, which phased out 2006 and older trucks in 2014. In 2022, she announced the Biden White House’s “Action to Accelerate Clean Transit Buses, School Buses and Trucks,” including the EPA Phase 3 greenhouse gas regulations, which became final in March.
“I don’t see them being able to push the needle much more than they already have, especially when it comes to commercial vehicles,” Starks says.
An issue Meuwissen has her eye are the tax provisions that were part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Some of those are set to expire in 2025, including lower corporate rates and the change in amortization of research and development expenses. In 2026, whoever is in the White House will also lead the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the deal that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement.
"The agreement is essential for many industries, including the auto and commercial vehicle sectors," Meuwissen says. "The USMCA entered into force in July 2020 so many companies are still adjusting to those new requirements. (It) includes several provisions that had not previously existed under NAFTA, such as the Labor Value Content requirement and the Steel and Aluminum Requirement."
Commercial vehicle manufacturers and parts suppliers are in the midst of the implementation of these regulations, Meuwissen says. How a new administration would affect that implementation remains to be seen.
Congressional division
Also, while the president can push through tariffs on his or her own, they would need Congress on board, and “now you’re talking about, like, eight different scenarios,” Starks says.
“It’s so close it only takes a couple of seats either way or a couple of votes either way to change that overall makeup,” he says. “We haven’t even done scenario analysis on all of them because any change always takes more time than people anticipate.”
How much time? Try a year or so in such a deeply divided Congress, Starks says. “I see zero bipartisan capability.”
Congress can also affect environmental regulations, Meuwissen says.
"Depending on the makeup of the 119th Congress, the House and/or Senate may initiate legislation changing these regulations," Meuwissen says, citing the EPA's tailpipe emissions standards and fuel efficiency regulations. "This may come in the form of hearings and bills assessing the transformation of the U.S. mobility sectory toward greater electrification."
Neither candidate has taken a stance on Right to Repair, Meuwissen says. However, the previous Trump administration held a right to repair workshop in 2019. Under President Biden, the FTC released a policy statement and announced its intention to increase enforcement of illegal repair restrictions, urging the public to submit potential violations to the agency.
In Minnesota, Gov. Tim Walz, Harris' running mate, signed a state law that Meuwissen called one of the most comprehensive Right to Repair laws in the country, but it did not address the mobility sector. Sen. J.D. Vance, Trump's running mate, has not made a public position.
"MEMA plans to work with the incoming administration and the new Congress to ensure the key decision-makers are aware of and understand the critical importance of the Right to Repair issue and the dramatic impact it has on the industry, on consumers in every state and district across the country, and on the nation's competitive and economic health," Meuwissen says.
What Starks is really worried about, he adds, is if the election isn’t over quickly. A prolonged fight over who won the White House would lead to animosity that could bleed into 2025. On Jan. 1, Starks points out Congress must deal with the next debt ceiling debate.
“That’s a terrible time if you’re talking about some protracted negative environment,” Starks says.
