Last quarter was the worst three-month segment for truck and trailer dealers in the history of the Trucks, Parts, Service MarketPulse survey and 65% of dealers think the second half of 2025 will be more of the same, responders stated in our quarterly survey in July.
Aftermarket sentiment also was down in Q2, though that segment has slightly more hope for the months ahead, likely due to its absence of equipment sales anxieties.
Neither side enters the second half of the year in good spirits. Whatever confidence survey responders once had for a freight and economic turnaround in 2025 is gone. Focus has shifted toward 2026 and making it out of this year with as little business contraction as possible.
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And the latter, unfortunately, seems unlikely. Dealer and aftermarket responders are increasingly fearing layoffs and growth plan reductions may be required in the months ahead.
Q2 was not the turnaround readers needed
After entering 2025 optimistic trucking had turned a corner, dealer and aftermarket responders were frustrated by continued economic malaise in the first quarter. That frustration evolved into resignation and fear in Q2.
In the dealer segment, July survey responders rated Q2 as a 5.05 on our 1-10 scale (where one is the worst quarter ever and 10 is the best), slightly below the channel’s previous all-time low of 5.19 (Q3 2024) and the 5.22 predicted by our responders when entering the second quarter in April. When asked to rank their business profits compared to the same period in 2024, 65% of dealers were down year over year, including 25% being down by at least 5%.
How dealer responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
The story in the aftermarket wasn’t much better.
Responders to our first-quarter survey predicted a 5.91 average on our 1-10 scale for Q2, and the period came in just below at 5.86. Only 5% of aftermarket responders saw their profits down by 5% or more, but another 38% were down by 1 to 5%.
How aftermarket responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
Getting harder to be hopeful for months ahead
Another quarter of stunted business conditions has mostly eliminated positivity among readers for the rest of 2025. When asked to anticipate business performance for Q3, dealers expect the quarter to be a 5.25 on our 1-10 scale, with the aftermarket at 6.14.
Looking out six months, 65% of dealers expect business conditions to be down year over year when compared to 2024 (with 20% expecting business to be down by at least 5%). Aftermarket expectations are more bullish but still wary, with 81% of responders expecting the final months of 2024 to be equal to (43%) or slightly better (38%) than 2024.
Some survey responders were vocal about the challenges their businesses face today.
As one dealer put it, “We are in uncertain times; business is up and down weekly now. [It’s] very hard to predict.”
An aftermarket responder cited “continued depressed trucking markets in Canada and the U.S.” as a reason for reduced profitability, while another aftermarket responder shared, “We’re very fortunate to be growing in the tough economy.”
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Expectedly, both channels also pegged economic and business conditions as their top concern at this time, though new equipment sales fears in the dealer channel are growing (20% of dealers ranked it as their top concern; 85% put it in their top five).
Workforce reductions loom without market turnaround
Avoiding equipment sales challenges doesn’t mean the aftermarket is thriving.
The channel’s slightly stronger Q2 results and second-half projections haven’t alleviated the fears of workforce reduction that first permeated the aftermarket in 2024. They’ve only intensified.
In our July survey, 14% of aftermarket responders said they are considering a workforce reduction in the months ahead. That total is up 5% from our April survey and 9% from January. Dealers, even with their myriad equipment sales challenges, have not approached that number, and only 5% of dealers stated they are considering downsizing in our Q2 survey.
The aftermarket also is pulling back its investment plans, as only 38% of responders in July said they are considering adding a new facility at this time. That number was in the mid-40s in our last two surveys.
Conversely, most dealers (55%) still want to expand but are shifting their attention from acquisitions to adding locations. Only 18% of dealers considering expansion are pursuing acquisitions, but 91% would like to open a new facility.
TPS will conduct its 2025 third quarter MarketPulse survey in October and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our first quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].
