
Dealer and aftermarket operations are starting to get up off the mat after being knocked down by subpar business conditions last year, reported responders to the Trucks, Parts, Service quarterly MarketPulse survey last month.
For the first time in the three-year history of our quarterly survey, business performance rose in unison in the dealer and aftermarket segments last quarter when compared to the prior quarter. The improvements were minimal — business conditions remain well below the 2022 market peaks quantified by our earliest surveys — but are nonetheless notable. Prior to January’s survey, participant sentiment about business conditions had rose only once for dealers (from Q1 to Q2 in 2022) and aftermarket responders (Q1 to Q2 2024) since the inception of our survey.
Whether or not these fourth-quarter assessments indicate a market turnaround will not be known conclusively until later this year but the temporary reprieve of continued market weakening is a welcome sign.
[RELATED: January Class 8 truck orders slip amid market headwinds]
Additionally, when coupled with increased confidence from our responder pool for all of 2025, it appears growth is on the minds of many after two years of belt tightening.
Closing 2024 is clearly a welcome sign for all.
How TPS MarketPulse survey dealers have rated business conditions, on average, at the conclusion of each quarter from 2022 to 2024.
Dealers ranked business conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024 as a 5.41 on our 1-10 scale (where one is the worst quarter ever and 10 is the best), better than only one quarter (Q3 2024) in the history of our survey. The aftermarket story was identical, with the fourth quarter earning a 5.14 average, better than the ugly 4.95 earned in the third quarter but below all other quarters.
Expectedly, those soft averages didn’t stack up well against 2023, either.
Most dealers (72%) said the fourth quarter last year was down at least 1% from the same period in 2023. In the aftermarket, that majority fell to 59% but another 18% said the quarter was just equal to the prior year. Across both segments, only two survey responders total said their business in the fourth quarter was up at least 5% year over year.
[RELATED: MacKay & Company duo confirms 2024 market regression, says recession risks still exist]
In expanding analysis for the entire year, 46% of dealers and 27% of aftermarket responders said their business profits were down at least 5% year over year from 2024 to 2023; with another 32% of dealers and 36% of aftermarket responders down 1-5%.
The good news is almost no one anticipates the weakness of the second half of 2024 to continue throughout 2025.
How TPS MarketPulse survey aftermarket responders have rated business conditions, on average, at the conclusion of each quarter from 2022 to 2024.
Dealer (5.77) and aftermarket (5.82) predictions for the current quarter using our 1-10 scale were both higher than fourth quarter performance, and when asked about how business conditions may shift over the next six months, 77% of dealers and 87% of aftermarket responders expect the first half of this year to outpace 2024.
That optimism wasn’t limited to those questions. Fewer responders to last month’s survey intend to reduce their workforce than what we uncovered in October (which was a record high), while more are intending to add staff and considering new locations.
[RELATED: Aftermarket parts sales indicator reverses course]
Long-term projections are higher too, with 64% of dealers and 82% of aftermarket responders expecting their business profits to be up at least 1% year over year in 2025.
But this optimism doesn’t come without obstacles. Current economic conditions such as inflation and tariffs continue to vex both channels, while dealers remain uniquely targeted and hampered by regulatory challenges. Multiple dealer responders specifically cited state regulations as detriments impacting their new truck sales potential, and 64% claimed regulatory influence on trucking as a top five concern.
TPS will conduct its 2025 first quarter MarketPulse survey in April and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our first quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].