Rising prices accounted for most aftermarket sales growth through the first half of 2025 and macroeconomic factors are likely limit growth opportunities in the second half, MacKay & Company reported during MEMA’s monthly Pulse webinar Tuesday.
Presenting on its various aftermarket and trucking economic indices, MacKay & Company’s Travis Kokenes and Bob Dieli revealed that while Class 6-8 truck, trailer and container chassis aftermarket sales have outpaced 2024 year to date, the market is hardly in a position of balanced, steady expansion.
Import and export activity in trucking industry boomed in the first quarter ahead of potential tariff threats before receding by nearly the same volume in Q2. And with the broader freight market still scuffling and more tariffs having recently kicked in, it is increasingly likely the greater than 20% of Truckable Economy Activity (TEA) tied to trade will remain unpredictable in the months ahead.
For aftermarket manufacturer or distributor executives hungry for stability, MacKay & Company’s duo said the second half of the year is unlikely to be a great time. Improved utilization rates over 2024 should keep sales slightly ahead of price inflation, but TEA segment volatility is likely to remain in place as long as President Donald J. Trump continues his chaotic approach to tariff implementation.
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“Tariffs will be part of the foreseeable future, but no one knows how long the foreseeable future will last,” said Bob Dieli, MacKay & Company economist.
In the short-term, Dieli said the only thing businesses can do to outrun tariff-related balance sheet woes is adjust their price. In the longer term they have far greater options.
“In the short term you can only change price; in the long term you can change anything,” he said.
Dieli said these changes could include internal moves like adjusting raw material sourcing or production, alterations to Selling, General, and Administrative expenses (SG&A) and markup; or external, customer-facing changes like retail pricing, marketing and positioning relative to competitors.
Dieli didn’t advocate for any specific ideas but did advise webinar attendees to consider the best solutions for their businesses in both individual segments before building comprehensive strategies.
Tariffs impact both supply and demand, and Dieli said, “consider them separately before addressing them together.”
As for current market conditions, MacKay & Company’s Travis Kokenes reported the company’s most recent Aftermarket Index report shows the aftermarket up 3.1% in the United States and 5.1% in Canada year to date (YTD). MacKay’s data reports aftermarket responders are outperforming their OES competitors in both nations. In the U.S., dealers are up 2.2% and the independent aftermarket is up 4.5%. In Canada, dealers are actually down 3.1% but the aftermarket is up 8.6%.
The company has amended its forecast accordingly, and is now expecting U.S. aftermarket sales up 5.3% for the entirety of 2025 to $54.3 billion, then 4.0% next year with a 3.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next five years.
Kokenes reiterated the impact price will have on those numbers.
He said MacKay & Company is forecasting a 3.0% rise for price 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, though prolonged trade uncertainty could drive both numbers higher. Conversely, aftermarket price rose by 1.9% annually on average from 1990 to 2019.
Kokenes added for the aftermarket to experience a larger, price-independent expansion, freight will need to improve to force carriers to further increase utilization and acquire new equipment. But when will the freight recession end, “that’s really hard to say,” he said.
Dieli agreed on the uncertainty but added stabilization in trade activity for the carrier space would be a good start. The pull ahead of trade in Q1 that weakened Q2 means activity in this quarter could be higher but likely won’t be remarkable, and port deliveries are expected to be down for the rest of the year.
“Downside risk continues to dominate the outlook” for the short term and will for the long term until tariff clarity arrives, Dieli said.
“How long is the long run? As long as the president thinks it should be,” he said.
