Class 8 truck orders fell month over month in January while battling tariff, regulatory and other headwinds, FTR and ACT Research reported Tuesday.
FTR pegged its January preliminary order total at 24,000 units, down 28% from December and 15% from January 2024 with most declines coming in the on-highway space. ACT Research's estimate was slightly higher at 25,800 units, down 30% month over month and 5% year over year in its data.
FTR reports January's total was slightly below the seven-year January average of 27,950 units, and the company notes there are clear reasons why. With looming threats of significant tariffs among the North American trading partners and increasing uncertainty for market participants, the positive momentum that held throughout the beginning of the 2025 order season appears to be facing some headwinds.
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“A 25% U.S. tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico — currently paused for trade negotiations through early March — and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as of February 4 could significantly increase costs for North American Class 8 trucks and parts if fully implemented and enforced indefinitely,” says Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “With roughly 40% of U.S. Class 8 trucks built in Mexico and around 65% of Canada’s Class 8 trucks built in the U.S., tariffs and likely counter-tariffs threaten to disrupt supply chains and drive up vehicle prices.
He adds, “Combined with upcoming U.S. EPA 2027 NOx regulations, tariffs could accelerate or delay fleet upgrades. While OEMs and suppliers may explore shifting production to mitigate potential tariff impacts, such changes are complex and will take some time to implement. Ongoing trade negotiations and policy uncertainties may already be influencing investment decisions and long-term planning for fleets, OEMs, and suppliers.”
ACT Research also pointed to the market's overall health when evaluating last month's slip.
“While January orders took a step down from the recent trend, strength continues to be the applicable descriptor of Class 8 order activity,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “In January, Class 8 orders dropped 5.1% year over year. While down narrowly from last January, orders were down 30% against a seasonally stronger December. Seasonally adjusted, Class 8 orders fell 22% from December to 23,300 units, and a 279,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate. Over the past six months, orders have been booked at a 32,000-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate.”
The medium-duty space also softened in January, as ACT's preliminary order total of 15,100 units was down 10% from December and 21% year over year.
“Medium-duty Classes 5-7 orders continue their slowly deflating trajectory into still historically elevated truck and bus backlogs,” Vieth says.
