
A foundation has been laid for the gradual improvement in Class 8 truck sales, Commercial Motor Vehicle Consulting (CMVC) reported Thursday.
According to CMVC, Class 8 truck capacity was brought in balance with the freight environment in 2024. Additionally, pricing in the for-hire trucking industry is relatively neutral with neither shippers nor carriers have pricing power to substantially change freight rates.
Thus, fleets have spare capacity in place to initially meet sluggish-to-moderate growth in freight volumes, but growing freight volumes will slowly reduce spare capacity during the year gradually putting upward pressure on new Class 8 truck sales as fleets need to expand capacity to meet higher freight volumes. The pressure upon fleets to expand capacity will slowly gain momentum during 2025 as spare capacity gradually decreases.
CMVC believes "a gradual reduction in spare capacity will slowly swing the pricing pendulum towards for-hire carriers resulting in moderate increases in freight rates to cover higher operating costs and improve operating margins. Gradual improvements in profitability in the for-hire trucking industry during 2025 will support higher investment spending on trucks to expand capacity to meet growing freight volumes."
Yet despite those improved business conditions, there are still risks to the freight outlook.
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CMVC states geopolitical conditions and President Trump’s new economic policies — particularly tariffs — may accelerate freight growth or weigh on freight growth. A broad increase in tariffs across countries may weigh on U.S. exports as other countries enact retaliatory tariffs in response to higher U.S. tariffs.
"No leader wants to be seen as weak, so other countries are likely to enact retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs that will weigh on U.S. exports. The U.S.’s most competitive industries are global and approximately 25% of industrial production is directly or indirectly related to exports, so a tariff war has the potential to weigh on U.S. industrial production, as a result, the freight environment as well," CMVC states. "At this moment, it is unsure if the Trump Administration plans to use tariffs as a bargaining chip in negotiations with other countries or is a key part of the Trump administration’s economic policy. The coming months will tell how the Trump administration plans to use tariffs."
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CMVC also notes a truck pre-buy could play a role in the U.S. Class 8 sales environment in 2025, as fleets pull forward their planned truck purchases from 2027 into 2025 and 2026 in order to reduce the average age of their truck fleets to delay operating 2027 emission compliant trucks. The size of the pre-buy will be determined by a host of factors including profitability of the for-hire trucking industry as well as private fleets. Fleets will not jeopardize the health of their balance sheets to support a large pre-buy.