Preliminary North America Class 8 net orders were down slightly in December from November but well ahead of 2023 totals, ACT Research and FTR reported Friday.
According to ACT, preliminary orders in December were 36,500 units, down 2.1% from November and up 39% year over year. FTR’s estimate was weaker, with December orders of 31,900 units, down 7% from last month and up just 23% from December 2023.
FTR states this figure slightly outperformed seasonal expectations, surpassing the seven-year December average of 29,716 net orders. Despite a sluggish truck freight environment, FTR says the 2025 order season (September through December 2024) has seen cumulative net orders up 6% year over year, signaling positive momentum entering the new year.
“Strength continues to be the applicable descriptor of Class 8 order activity as the industry looks to 2025. In December, Class 8 orders were in line,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “While down from November, orders were up nearly 39% compared to last December’s performance. With the largest seasonal factor of the year, seasonal adjustment is always unkind in December. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders fell 15% from November to 29,700 units, and a 356,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate.”
FTR adds full year 2024 total Class 8 net orders were up 11% year over year, a performance slightly surpassing replacement demand levels at an average of 23,323 net orders per month. Class 8 orders for full-year 2024 totaled 279,872 units.
“While OEMs experienced an overall month-over-month decline in order activity for December, most OEMs performed above seasonal expectations as net orders maintained relatively high levels for what is typically a softer order month,” says Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst, commercial vehicles. “There also wasn’t any notable difference in vocational segment month-over-month order movement performance versus how on-highway performed this.”
He adds, “We continue to watch the ongoing discussions and developments related to President-elect Trump’s plans to impose immediate tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China as more than 40% of Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. are built in Mexico. Tariffs could significantly disrupt supply chains and raise production costs, compounding disruptions already anticipated due to EPA 2027 NOx regulations. Fleets may adjust order and retail demand strategies in response.”
In the medium-duty space, orders were down against both measurements.
Vieth says medium-duty Classes 5-7 orders “continue their consistent, if slowly deflating, trajectory into still historically elevated truck and bus backlogs.” He says preliminary orders were 16,800 units, down 300 units from November and 40% down from December 2023. It was the “third weakest net order tally of 2024,” he adds.
