
Batting leadoff during an Inauguration Day Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue (HDAD), presented by MacKay & Company and MEMA Monday in Grapevine, Texas, Peterbilt General Manager and Paccar Vice President Jason Skoog was quick to recognize the elephant in the room.
Just days after CARB abandoned its waiver request to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for its Advanced Clean Fleets rule, Skoog looked out at an audience hungry to know what’s to expect regarding other emission regulations under President Donald Trump’s second administration and put it bluntly, “What will happen to these regulations — I hope you don’t think I know.”
Skoog said Paccar is operating under the belief that regulations already in place will continue to exist until they don’t, and recommended the suppliers in the room do the same. He said CARB’s decision to sideline its customer zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) purchase requirements doesn’t eliminate CARB’s sales mandate on OEMs under its Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule.
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Selling trucks in California and CARB adopting states has already become challenging — as evidenced by DTNA’s recent actions in Oregon — and isn’t going to become easier. Skoog also noted that for OEMs to meet ACT parameters and drive ZEV adoption, the commercial vehicle industry will need to accept a variety of technology and propulsion methods. Skoog said battery electric technology is the leading alternative power at this moment but infrastructure development remains troubling.
“There is simply not one ZEV solution that can replace every diesel application,” he said. “More scale in infrastructure will be needed to make these solutions work.”
Stepping beyond regulations, Skoog was more confident and positive. He said Paccar’s data indicates Class 8 truck sales were 268,000 units in 2024 and are expected to land between 250,000 and 280,000 units in 2025. Skoog said all those numbers are normal, historically, and positive macroeconomic factors indicate another stable year is underway.
Skoog said the reason 2024 and 2025 might feel less stellar is because they are following the all-time highs of the post-pandemic economic boom.
“It never feels normal when you come down off a market peak,” he said.
Skoog also spent time Monday urging the suppliers in the audience to maximize this period of stability to prepare for the next market upswing. He said the freight recession will not last forever and the new administration will be eager to spur economic growth.
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Skoog said there are no constraints impacting the market today — “the only constraint is what your mind is telling you” — and vendors who prepare now for the next market boom will be most likely to capitalize and earn market share when it arrives.
“When the commercial vehicle market turns, it turns fast,” he said. “We [OEMs] will put a lot of pressure on the supply chain to deliver more parts faster.”
As for possible tariffs, Skoog reiterated his message regarding regulations. He said Paccar is operating under a business as usual standpoint, leveraging its capabilities at its nearby Denton, Texas, facility to bring equipment to market as quickly as possible. Skoog said uptime has been the No. 1 priority of Peterbilt’s customer councils four years running and that’s where Peterbilt’s focus must be. He said the OEM won’t speculate on how parts sourcing could change until its necessary.
“If we sat around and speculated for hours — that’s a lot of time we won’t get back,” he said.
And Skoog believes now is the time to execute, and plan for the future. To win business today and prepare to win more business tomorrow.
“The time to have a plan is now,” he said.