ACT Research says its forecast for 2026 is overshadowed with uncertainty and other economic headwinds.
"Recent clarity regarding EPA'27 is welcomed, but as we have reiterated, truckers buy trucks when they make money," says Ken Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. "While regulatory clarity is helpful, at current low levels of carrier profitability and returns on investment, barring an unforeseen shift in economic fortunes, a tractor prebuy is highly unlikely but could spur some marginal activity later in 2026 as supply-demand conditions for carriers improve."
ACT's North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook says uneven growth in freight-generating segments, economic policies and lingering overcapacity are tempering any recovery from a years-long for-hire freight recession.
"Additionally, the trucking industry is contending with recently enacted Section 232 tariffs that placed at 25% levy on the value of foreign content in imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and buses," Vieth adds. "With the for-hire market entering a third consecutive year of generationally low profitability and freight rates generally moving sideways, tariff-driven equipment cost increases will help to constrain already weak new U.S. vehicle demand."
Additionally, Vieth points to an air pocket that follows tariff-driven freight pull-forward, inflation rates and other headwinds in the economy. And it's not just the freight market.
"Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be hampered in the short- to medium-term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds and emissions regulations. However, secular trends regarding utilities, roads and data centers remain positive for construction-related vocational equipment in the long run."
