Here’s what you need to know:
- Class 8 preliminary truck orders skyrocketed in February to approximately 47,000 units, marking a staggering +150% increase year-over-year.
- Analysts attribute the explosion in demand to a strategic rush ahead of EPA 2027 regulatory cost increases, combined with an aging national fleet and a steady recovery in freight rates that is boosting carrier confidence.
- With the order season now showing year-over-year growth, the market appears to be shifting from “catch-up” purchasing to a more structured recovery.
It appears the pre-buy is finally here.
Class 8 preliminary new truck orders exploded in February, FTR and ACT Research reported Tuesday, rising more than 20% for the third consecutive month to approximately 47,000 units.
FTR reports its total of 47,200 units is the highest since September 2022. ACT pegs the month slightly lower at 46,200 units, but notes the is the eighth-highest single month in its order tracking history — which spans more than 44 years.
On a day when both Mack and Kenworth introduced new Class 8 models, Tuesday’s order totals show a market that may have finally turned around.
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“With onerous EPA 2027 cost increases on the horizon, an aging fleet, and growing confidence that the winter run-up in freight rates will remain sticky, Class 8 order strength continued in February,” says Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “February’s intake represents the eighth best order month in the 530 months ACT Research has been collecting data.”
ACT says its February total was 156% better than a year ago; FTR’s estimate was up 159% and nearly double the 10-year February average of 24,991 units.
“February’s very solid year-over-year increase in net orders extended the firmer tone that has been building since late last year,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles at FTR. “While a portion of demand still reflects previously deferred replacement purchases reentering the market, the consistency and breadth of recent order activity suggest momentum is now being driven more meaningfully by improving freight fundamentals.”
FTR reports the on-highway market made up the bulk of the increase but both the on-highway and vocational markets contributed to the month-over-month and year-over-year growth in orders.
The company says orders have totaled 258,466 units over the last 12 months, and the 2026 order season (September 2025 to February 2026) is now up slightly at 4% year-over-year growth — a notable improvement from the double-digit declines earlier in the cycle. Additionally, FTR states the steady narrowing of the year-over-year deficit in the past three months and strengthening freight conditions suggest the Class 8 market is not only stabilizing but could be transitioning into the early stages of a cyclical recovery.
The company admits risks persist, including the durability of the freight recovery, still-high financing costs, the potential for tariff or regulatory shifts and, especially, geopolitical risks such as the new conflict in the Middle East. However, aside from those risks, FTR reports the sustained and increasingly freight-driven strength in orders reinforces the case that underlying demand is firming more decisively as 2026 progresses.
“Freight volumes and utilization are trending higher, and FTR’s rate forecasts have strengthened. Also, improved clarity around tariff-adjusted pricing and EPA 2027 NOx regulations is reducing policy-related hesitation and giving fleets greater confidence to advance capital plans,” says Moyer. “Order patterns increasingly suggest a structured replacement cycle and forward-looking fleet planning rather than short-term catch-up buying, underscoring healthier underlying demand.”
Vieth cites similar factors for the February total.
“The higher EPA 2027 cost estimates, coupled with an improved carrier profitability outlook, may partly explain February’s high-side surprise, as dealers and large fleets have even greater incentive to find the budget for equipment now rather than later,” he says. “Arguably, the most important factor to the order turnaround has been the sustained run-up in spot rates that started in late November.”
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In the medium-duty sector, Vieth says Classes 5-7 orders were not nearly as strong but did rise against a weak 2025, up 6.7% year over year to 17,400 units.
“Given last year was the weakest month for February orders since 2013, easy comps rather than meaningful medium-duty improvement seems the likeliest explanation for year-over-year outperformance,” Vieth says.
