After pulling closely in line to close 2025, business sentiment between and dealer and aftermarket responders splintered dramatically in the first quarter of 2026, according to our most recent Trucks, Parts, Service MarketPulse quarterly survey.
Aftermarket survey responders once again rated the last quarter as stronger than their dealer counterparts, the fifth consecutive quarter in which aftermarket performance was the higher rated of the two channels. But unlike Q4, which saw aftermarket sentiment ebb while dealer sentiment improved, the first quarter veered the other way.
Dealers felt the first quarter fell below the final months of 2025 and well below the expectations they gave for the quarter in January. In the aftermarket, opinions were the opposite, with Q1 outpacing projections and year-over-year totals.
On our 1-10 scale, (where one is the worst quarter ever and 10 is the best), dealers rated the first three months of 2026 as a 5.15 on average. Aftermarket responders gave the quarter a 6.47. The 1.32-point discrepancy between the channels is the largest in the four-plus year history of the TPS MarketPulse survey.
Weak truck orders coming home to roost
Muted, historically low equipment orders dominated the news cycle in the first half of 2025, and those weak months were visible in first quarter 2026 dealer sentiment. Half of dealer responders rated equipment sales as the weakest segment of their business in Q1 (40% new equipment, 10% used equipment); outpacing the 30% who rated equipment sales as a bright spot (20% new, 10% used).
How dealer responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
The weak quarter even surprised dealers, who had predicted a 5.83 on average on our 1-10 scale. The dealer channel has not exceeded a 5.46 in quarterly performance since a 6.40 average in final months of 2023.
Three quarters of dealer responders also rated Q1 as weaker on a year-over-year basis, with 25% saying they were down by at least 5% against 2025 and 50% down by 5% or less.
And with geopolitical tensions putting pressure on all sectors of the economy, forecasting a market turnaround is difficult.
“Until the economic, political, and war upheaval settle down, no one has confidence to invest or spend past the next 14-30 days,” one dealer says.
Aftermarket realizing short-term growth limitations
Aftermarket sentiment was much better in Q1 but, like dealers, parts and service operations still have concerns about the months ahead.
How aftermarket responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
The 6.47 average rating aftermarket responders gave Q1 is the best single quarter reading by either channel since dealers’ aforementioned 6.40 to close 2023. Aftermarket responders believe it can be replicated — they predict a 6.39 on average for Q2 — but none anticipate a big spring. No aftermarket responders predicted better than a 7 on our 1-10 scale for Q2, and only 13% believe business conditions will be up better than 5% year over year in the next six months.
Aftermarket responders also look to the Middle East when voicing concerns, citing the impact of the Iran conflict on fuel and market growth potential.
“We are very concerned that fuel prices will slow trucking and spending,” says one responder. Another adds, “If the price of diesel fuel could get in the low $2 per gallon range, I believe the whole industry would boom.”
Long-term sentiment remains mostly hopeful
If there’s a major positive in Q1’s survey, its long-term investment. Businesses across both sectors still want to grow, both in footprint and workforce. The general consensus across trucking that the freight recession has slowed, if not stopped, is evident in dealer and aftermarket opinions.
[RELATED: Our Mapping the Market report shows carrier, equipment levels steadied in Q1]
More than a third of aftermarket responders want to add staff in the months ahead, as do 25% of dealers. At least half of responders in both channels also are considering expansions. While those workforce expansion numbers are down slightly from our January survey, the consideration placed on expansion is incrementally higher.
Additionally, while sentiment around business conditions for the next six months is weighted more toward incremental growth than market boom, no responder to our April survey expects business to flag by more than 5%.
Which indicates responders are seeing the cup as half full.
“Optimism is growing,” says a dealer responder. “We are quoting more and customers are buying. All positives.”
“The increase in demand for new trucks due to the new engine regulations has pushed fleets to purchase new equipment,” adds an aftermarket responder. “Now we need to follow the old trucks wherever they go.”
TPS will conduct its 2026 second quarter MarketPulse survey in July and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our second quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].
