Commercial truck sales fell off precipitously in the first quarter of 2026 as weak order totals from last year finally came home to roost, the American Truck Dealers (ATD) announced Tuesday in its most recent Truck Beat report.
ATD reports in the first quarter commercial truck sales totaled 86,891 units, a decline of 17.7% compared to the same quarter 2025. Both medium- and heavy-duty truck sales saw year-over-year declines.
Year-to-date through March, medium-duty truck sales total 46,661 units, down 15.2% year over year; heavy-duty truck sales are weaker at 40,230 units, down 20.5% against 2025. ATD reports commercial truck sales in March also were down compared to March 2025, the ninth straight month of year-over-year declines.
Freightliner was the top seller in the Class 8 market despite a year-over-year reduction in market share. Mack and Volvo picked up the most market share in the Class 8 space. In Classes 4-7, Ford was the top seller while Freightliner was second and gained more than 4% of market share. International saw the largest decrease in Q1 market share in those classes.
In releasing the soft totals, ATD does note order levels are rising as demand finally returns to the market after a long hiatus. Orders are up 96% YTD through March, which represented the fourth straight month of 20% or better year-over-year improvement.
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“Since last month, spot and contract trucking rates have improved significantly, driven in part by trucking demand from data-center construction. Higher and more volatile diesel fuel prices since the start of the war in Iran have also pushed up rates,” states Patrick Manzi, ATD Chief Economist. “Given the improving freight environment and pending increase in equipment costs from EPA 2027 NOx regulations, fleets finally seem to be buying trucks.”
On that note, Manzi notes while the commercial vehicle market still awaits more clarity on pending EPA regulations, recent estimates from FTR peg the expected costs for new technology at $10,000 to $15,000 per truck, down from the $20,000 to $30,000 levels initially feared.
He also acknowledges the uncertainty of the Iran conflict, stating the tenuous situation in the Strait of Hormuz led to significant price spikes for diesel fuel, food and other commodities as well as various byproducts of oil and gas production in the region.
Yet, overall, Manzi says ATD’s forecast is trending upward. For 2026, ATD expects medium-duty truck sales will total 236,000 units and heavy-duty truck sales will reach 225,000 units. The latter is up 31% from its previous projection after Q4 in January 2026.
