Truck sales experienced double-digit losses in 2025

The commercial truck market experienced a 13.6% reduction in total sales in 2025, the American Truck Dealers (ATD) reported last week in fourth quarter Truck Beat market analysis report.

ATD reports medium- and heavy-duty truck sales each totaled over 208,000 units in 2025 for total commercial truck sales of 416,467 units. Medium-duty sales were down 13.9% year over year and heavy-duty was of by 13.3%. Sales were off by 10% through the third quarter, ATD reported in October.

Monthly sales totals were unremarkable early in the year before cratering in the second half with six straight months of year-over-year declines. 

ATD notes November was the weakest month in Q4, with Class 8 sales of 12,479 units, down 36.5% from 2024 and the weakest month since May 2020. In December, the Class 8 market rebounded to 20,225 units, up 62% month over month but still down 9.6% year over year. In the medium-duty space, sales were weaker at 19,082 units, down 15.5% year over year.

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For the year, Mack was the biggest winner in the Class 8 trucking space, gaining 1.8% market share against its five largest competitors. Western Star also picked up 0.7% market share. In the Classes 4-7 space, Ford earned 3.4% more market share to rise to 33.8%. International (0.9%) Hino (0.5%) and Mack (1.7%) were the other market share risers in that segment.

Looking ahead, December’s strong, sudden order boom is a minor salve amid such weak delivery numbers, but ATD Chief Economist Patrick Manzi references ACT Research in noting last month’s strength is limited when compared to December 2024. He also cites the continued freight recession as the limiting factor for sales and orders alike in the year ahead.

“The U.S. commercial truck market has been suffering from a freight recession for several years, and freight spot rates have not kept pace with rising costs in the industry. Freight spot rates have been low since collapsing during 2023 and 2024, all while costs to operate a trucking business have skyrocketed. This has caused owner-operators and small carriers to operate at a loss or barely break-even,” he states. “While the recent rise in spot rates isn’t enough to signal a buying spree from owner-operators or small fleets, it is an important trend to watch in 2026.”

ATD adds EPA 2027 NOx regulations and heavy-duty truck tariffs also could impact new equipment demand in the year ahead. A pre-buy has not appeared ahead of the regulations but could materialize. 

In the meantime, ATD projects Class 8 truck sales of 171,000 units in 2026, down another 18% compared to 2025. Its medium-duty projection is better at 236,000 units.

“As we saw the past year, a lot can change in a short time. We may yet see a turnaround in new heavy-duty truck demand toward the middle of the year,” Manzi adds.