The depth of the new truck market contraction was most evident in Class 8 deliveries last month.
ATD reports heavy-duty truck sales were down 25.6% year over year in September while medium-duty orders fell by 7.6%.
Expanding out for the last nine months, ATD reports overall commercial truck sales are down 10% year to date. This total is nearly 4% higher than where the market sat at midyear, and the tough September data for the Class 8 space indicates sales numbers will likely continue to weaken as the year comes to a close.
ATD Chief Economist Patrick Manzi points to September orders as just one reason. Though Class 8 orders rose by nearly 60% in September from August, the month was 44% behind September 2024 totals, with the Class 5-7 market also down by 22%. Overall, ATD reports medium-duty sales are now down by 10.7% in 2024, with the heavy-duty space off by 9.2%.
Manzi cites macroeconomic uncertainty, tariffs potential reasons keeping truck buyers on the sidelines.
Regarding tariffs, particularly the recently announced then delayed 25% tariff on new medium- and heavy-duty truck imports, Manzi states the trucking industry awaits clarity following the president’s announcement.
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“According to [MEMA], roughly 35% of medium- and heavy-duty trucks sold in the U.S. are imported. These new tariffs will be another impediment to truck sales on top of the three-year freight recession and tariffs that already were implemented on a variety of goods hauled by trucks,” he says.
“There is some hope that there will be at least some relief from tariffs as the Supreme Court considers the legality of tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and reciprocal tariffs. But this ruling would not affect the proposed 25% tariff on imported trucks.”
As for regulations, Manzi says clarity around the EPA Low NOx regulation for model year 2027 could spur a late pre-buy next year for carriers seeking to avoid an estimated price increase of nearly $20,000 per vehicle.
All of these unknowns are adding pressure to ATD market forecasts, he adds, stating ATD is now anticipating total commercial truck sales in 2025 of 450,000 units.
