The opening of order books for the 2026 production schedule led to a large increase in Class 8 truck orders in September (from August), but tariff and freight pressures continue to keep demand well below historical norms.
FTR reported Thursday preliminary net orders for North American Class 8 units of 20,500 units last month, up 60% from August but 41% below September 2024. The company states this marks the ninth straight month of year-over-year declines, a concerning trend as order boards open for the new year.
ACT Research offered a slightly better estimate for September, with a preliminary order total of 20,800 units.
“On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders totaled 18,800 units, a 225,000 SAAR [seasonally adjusted annual rate],” says Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “On a 6-and 12-month basis, orders continue to trend down, at 178,000 and 235,000 units, respectively.”
Conversely, FTR’s data indicates Class 8 orders have totaled 237,467 units over the last 12 months.
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FTR states last month’s total also is well below the 10-year September average of 29,499 units, which underscores fleet hesitancy amid trade tensions, tariff uncertainty and broader economic headwinds weighing on freight demand.
Dan Moyer, FTR senior analyst of commercial vehicles, pointed to tariffs in his analysis of September’s data.
“On Sept. 25, President Trump announced on social media a 25% Section 232 tariff on imported heavy-duty trucks, effective Oct. 1. However, no official details have been released from the U.S. government yet,” Moyer says. “It remains unclear when the tariff might be implemented and whether the tariff also covers medium-duty trucks, parts or USMCA-compliant imports. The news has already rattled fleets, OEMs and suppliers coping with weak demand, rising costs and fragile supply chains. The tariff adds to an already difficult trade environment. Steel, aluminum and copper duties remain at 50%, raising component costs and reciprocal tariffs for major trading partners further complicate sourcing.”
He continues, “The immediate effect will be higher truck prices, assuming the tariff is officially implemented. Imported Class 8 trucks will face a 25% surcharge, and U.S.-built models may see added costs from imported parts. Some fleets are likely to delay or cancel orders, boosting demand for used trucks as operators extend vehicle lifecycles. Reshoring may accelerate, but U.S. factories are hampered by labor constraints, high costs, and infrastructure limits. In the near term, the market faces higher prices supply chain disruptions and ongoing uncertainty.”
Core industry pressures remain as well. FTR says September’s month over month gain from August offers only temporary relief as year-over-year declines highlight weak freight demand, strained carrier profitability and subdued fleet confidence. The company states this environment creates uncertainty for OEMs and suppliers and order activity likely will remain volatile.
Without a recovery in freight volumes and rates, fleets will continue to limit replacement and expansion, FTR states, delaying any meaningful rebound in equipment demand.
ACT offers a similar outlook.
“The longest for-hire downturn in history continues to weigh on tractor demand as freight rates continue to run below inflation levels,” Vieth says. “Even as more tariffs are imposed, the nation awaits a verdict on IEEPA tariffs in a case the Supreme Court will hear in early November. On top of tariffs, the industry awaits the announcement from the EPA on the future of low NOx regulation. Quite the Q3 for the industry, and a challenging start to the opening of 2026 order boards.”
Yet Thursday’s reporting did have some small positives.
Both the vocational and on-highway segments saw solid gains in September, FTR reports, while ACT adds medium-duty orders also leapt upward from August to 15,500 units, and fared slightly better in year-over-year evaluation as well, down just 22%.
“Increased consumer pessimism, slowing services growth and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on Classes 5-7 orders,” Vieth says. “On a seasonally adjusted basis, Classes 5-7 orders decreased 2.9% month over month to 14,400 units, a 173,000 SAAR. On a 6- and 12-month basis, orders continue to trend lower, at 174,000 and 182,000, respectively.”
