The freight market was nearing balance in late 2024 and early 2025, with rates and volume trends improving. But since the start of the trade war, ACT Research states momentum has slowed sharply, as discussed in its latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook report.
“Extra pre-tariff equipment purchases and ongoing volume softness have kept truckload market conditions from tightening this year, and most of the adverse effects of tariffs are still to come,” says Tim Denoyer, ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “As the economy is likely to absorb the effects of tariffs over the next several months, our freight demand outlook remains cautious.”
He cites container shipping activity as an area set to fall sharply, which will likely affect intermodal most acutely from a surface freight perspective.
“We see growing evidence of private fleets reining in capacity after a major expansion from 2022-2024,” he continues. “Class 8 tractor production will drop by more than 30% from the first half to second half this year, and this reversal will eventually support a recovery in for-hire demand.”
