Despite little change to business conditions in the dealer and aftermarket sectors in the fourth quarter confidence is high for the year ahead, report responders to our most recent Trucks, Parts, Service MarketPulse quarterly survey.
For the fourth consecutive quarter aftermarket responders rated business as better than their dealer contemporaries in Q4, giving the 2025’s final months a 5.63 on our 1-10 scale (where one is the best quarter ever and 10 is the best). That average was down half a point from Q3’s assessment but almost exactly what the channel had anticipated for the fourth quarter at the conclusion of Q3.
Conversely, dealers assessed the fourth quarter as a little better than both third quarter results and their fourth quarter predictions, giving it an average rating of 5.39 on our 1-10 scale.
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These ratings are the closest the two channels have been to each other since the final months of 2024, when dealers reported business conditions at 5.41 and the aftermarket at 5.14.
How aftermarket responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
Inertia defined fourth quarter for both segments
Though business was slightly better for dealers and slightly weaker for aftermarket responders in Q4 there appeared to be little to no major market shifts.
Slagging new equipment deliveries and steady but unremarkable used equipment prices remained standard across the dealer channel. In the aftermarket, parts sales continue to outpace service revenues, likely due to price inflation for components and a continued reduction in outsourcing of service for shop customers.
How dealer responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
Overall, 67% of dealers rated Q4 of 2025 as weaker than its 2024 counterpart; in the aftermarket that number was 42% (but another 21% of responders rated their business as flat).
It is in evaluating the two years against one another that the aftermarket’s stronger performance becomes more evident. More than half of aftermarket responders after Q4 reported stronger business profits in 2025 over 2024 (37% were up 1 to 5% year over year, 16% were up 5% or more). In the dealer channel only 23% of responders were up year over year, with most of those (17%) up just 1 to 5%.
Dealers fear D.C.; aftermarket weakened by competition
As expected, current economic and business conditions are overwhelmingly the top concern for both channels entering 2026, as they were in 2025. But when looking beyond the economy, fears are distinct for each channel.
Regulations, tariffs and political machinations are among the biggest concerns for dealers, while the aftermarket is less worried about external factors and more focused on the guy across the street.
Nearly 90% of dealer responders cited ‘regulatory influence on trucking industry’ as a top five concern in our January survey. None of those dealers ranked it as their biggest fear — where the economy was priority No. 1 for 67% — but 28% had it second and it garnered double-digit support for the third through five positions. New equipment sales was similarly viewed, as the top concern for only 11% of dealers but a top five issue for 81%.
Among aftermarket responders, 53% selected ‘economic/business conditions’ as their biggest concern with 90% putting it in their top five. The only other concerns to gain more than 50% support as top five concerns were local competition (69%) and employee recruitment and retention of non-technical roles (59%). Competition was the second, third or fourth concern for more than half of aftermarket responders.
2026 predictions show guarded optimism growing
The aftermarket was the more optimistic channel in our MarketPulse survey throughout 2025 and that continued in Q4, though dealer sentiment also ticked up notably in its forecasting.
No aftermarket responder in our January survey predicts profits will trend downward in the first half of the year — 15% expect business to be flat, 74% expect to be up 1 to 5% and the remaining 11% by 5% or more.
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Extending those projections out for the year, 5% say the year could finish down 1 to 5% while 79% anticipate a better year and 16% an equivalent year to 2025. As such, 53% of aftermarket responders are looking to add to their workforce.
The dealer side has less consensus but still leans positive.
For the first half of the year, 39% of dealers expect their profits to be up while another 39% predict they will be flat (22% expect to be down 1 to 5%). For the entire year, half expect profits to rise, and only 17% anticipate they will be down against 2025.
That guarded uncertainty is clear in dealer comments, as they remain unsure of their customer capabilities.
One responder states, “Buyers are asking for quotes, [which is] a good sign.” But another adds it is “very difficult trying to determine the financial standing of our customers. They have become more guarded about sharing their financial picture, which leads us to believe that it is worse than in the last 24 months.”
TPS will conduct its 2026 first quarter MarketPulse survey in April and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our first quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].
