After persistent weakening of business conditions throughout 2024, many aftermarket operations brought muted goals into 2025. Hope existed for a market turnaround, but the all-time highs of 2022 were firmly in the rearview mirror.
They’re even further out of view today.
While optimism is slowing returning to the aftermarket — tied to an aging vehicle population and relative stability on the tariff front — the inconsistency that’s dominated the parts and service sector for three years is not expected to immediately alleviate now that the calendar reads 2026.
Second-half projections are improving but today’s aftermarket remains uneven, with success mostly defined by regions, product categories and customer segments.
Resiliency remains the channel’s best resource, and in interviews and surveys Trucks, Parts, Service conducted with parts and service executives in the final months of 2025, that is expected to remain the case for some time.
[RELATED: We’ve also asked dealers and your supplier partners about how they expect to fare in 2026.]
The freight recession is not impacting aftermarket entities as directly as their dealer counterparts, but it is still limiting the potential of their operations. Until the macroeconomic factors that influence trucking change course and reinvigorate carrier investment, competition will be fierce and growth opportunities will be limited.
2025 results solid, yet unspectacular, across most of aftermarket
For most independent parts and service operations, 2025 will be defined by what didn’t happen. Projections entering the year were positive, albeit muted, and sentiment across the channel was hopeful.
The introduction of tariffs in the first quarter and the supply chain and freight uncertainties they caused eradicated that optimism. The aftermarket ultimately fared OK, but it was a year that could have been better.
“The single hardest part of 2025 [was] the pervasive ‘wait-and-see’ mindset across fleets, manufacturers and end-users,” Chris Baer, president and CEO at the VIPAR Heavy Duty Family of Companies, told TPS in November. “When capital expenditure is uncertain — whether for new truck orders, fleet investments or parts purchases — decision-making gets delayed.”
Other distributors shared a difficult part of 2025: Watching demand shrink in real time. Tariff-generated inflation enabled price increases but reduced volumes in many categories.
As one distributor put it, “Sales are up, however pricing and tariffs are a contributing factor. The market has been softer than planned, in part due to freight, and therefore we are off plan.”
“Our projections anticipated a similar year [to 2024], and that proved accurate until mid-summer, when the market abruptly slowed,” said Ken Bumgardner, president at Michigan-based Royal Truck & Utility Trailer. “I attribute much of this shift to tariff-related uncertainty. Many customers appeared to advance purchasing decisions early in the year to stay ahead of anticipated price adjustments.”
The year was a “mixed bag,” added Inland Truck Parts & Service COO Geoff Garafola, which experienced performance variability across its network with “no single product category exhibiting exceptionally strong performance.”
Yet Garafola also noted some of 2025’s softness was due to comparison bias. The first years after the best year ever are always unfairly maligned.
“Categories that are down this year are down only relative to unusually strong performance in the years immediately following COVID,” he said. “The pent-up demand during that time created exceptional results, and 2025 feels, at least in part, like a correction from those highs.”
Our fall 2025 TPS reader survey confirms these assessments.
Among aftermarket responders to our survey, 34% reported their company’s 2025 performance was below its 2024 results, though only 7% were down more than 10% year over year. The year was worse when measured against projections. One in five aftermarket responders said their 2025 tracked in line with their projections, but 43% were off (30% by 2-10% and 13% by 10% or more).
Additionally, while 30% of responders stated their 2025 was at least 10% above 2024 actuals, only 3% stated they were outpacing their projections more than 10%.
And while some product categories were depressed, others were notably strong. Dealer competition, repairability and access to pockets of vocational or municipal stability proved key to reporting a good year.
At Freedom Truck & Trailer Parts in Salt Lake City, General Manager Bobby Rutherford said he saw a notable uptick in drivetrain and suspension business in 2025 from regional fleets and shops alike. Freedom’s remanufacturing capabilities in those areas give the company a distinctively diverse product offering, but Rutherford still noted, year over year, Freedom outperformed “2024 on nearly every metric: profit; margin; customer retention and inventory turns.”
Another distributor across the country said the same, citing positive year-over-year sales in brakes, wheel and suspension, driveline and more. The distributor cited its continuous educational endeavors with customers and high inventory levels for the positivity, believing both “help drive sales in good times and in poor times protect sales levels.”
Yet that same distributor also noted it had experienced a slight reduction in electrical sales, such as batteries, mostly due to competition from the OEM channel.
At Inland, with its more than three dozen locations across the western half of the country, Garafola said its major categories mostly showed stability, which the company attributed to “solid product availability and our deep expertise in complex components that align well with the needs of local markets.”
[RELATED: Check out the top new product of 2025 from our annual countdown]
Other distributors also spoke highly of local market expertise, and capitalizing in segments not crushed by the freight recession or external factors.
Fort Garry Industries Vice President of Aftermarket Dave Cannon said his team found focusing on local economic drivers near its 21 stores as key to stability in 2025. Steel and aluminum business in Canada was down but other segments were more resilient.
Cannon said Fort Garry spent the year “looking to bolster effort with customers less affected by downturns.”
Midwest Wheel had a similar experience, said Michael Callison Jr., president and CEO. Callison said Midwest’s recent expansion efforts enabled the business to prioritize strong customer segments in new regions to ramp up sales, while also experiencing an uptick in higher cost work (like clutch or transmission jobs) as equipment owners held on to vehicles longer than they anticipated due to market conditions.
“We made a focus out of both of the above,” he said.
But service was no sure thing nationwide.
Baer said across VIPAR’s networks, “any kind of part sale tied to a repair that can be delayed [was] down” as maintenance work that could be delayed often was.
Cody Brooks, president at Brooks Diesel Service in Oklahoma, noted that challenge in his market. Brooks said his company outpaced its projections in 2025 but did start slow, with service flagging behind parts before improving as the year progressed.
“We had many small fleets and owner-operators who bought needed items to fix their trucks but were not ready to pay to get work done,” he said.
Bumgardner saw that too. “The greatest contraction [was] in billable shop labor, which I believe reflects a broader customer trend of handling repairs internally to control costs.”
The uncertainty created by tariffs also just never seemed to fully go away.
The frequency of tariff changes were cited as a top concern for multiple distributors in 2025, while in the TPS reader survey “general business/economic conditions (including tariffs)” was the top business concern for 25% of responders and a top three concern for 59%.
“Tariffs by far,” said John Blodgett, vice president of sales and marketing at MacKay & Company, about the aftermarket’s biggest 2025 challenge. “Not so much the actual tariffs (which most folks are against) but the confusion and lack of clarity. Most folks we speak with, regardless of what they think of tariffs, just want resolution or consistency in policies so they can effectively deal with.”
“Uncertainty has been the word of the year in 2025,” added Edward Kuo, executive director of the Commercial Vehicle Solutions Network (CVSN).
“As [President] Trump continues to roll out unexpected policy changes, it’s really difficult for companies in the industry to plan out their next six to 12 months,” he said. “That might be why we’re seeing more of a ‘hunker down and survive approach’ right now.”
How long will that approach continue into 2026?
Aftermarket executives are again optimistic for a turnaround, but after the last few years, also are realistic that a lot needs to change to spring a sales takeoff.
Tariff stability is one priority. Aftermarket executives believe consistent trade rates would normalize pricing and supply chains.
Callison said navigating tariffs was a challenge in 2025 but had mostly subsided by December, though related changes by vendors was another “large factor.”
The uneven results of last year’s tariffs also make this year’s forecast murkier.
“There seems to be a mix of economic forecast for 2026,” said Blodgett. “We have not seen the complete drop off in the economy as many economists predicted with the start or tariffs, nor have we seen a boom in the economy as the administration predicted. Our current economic forecast predicts more of the same in 2026, slight growth with continued headwinds and concerns.”
TPS survey responders believe interest rates are another barrier to growth. The Federal Reserve issued a 0.25% rate cut on Dec. 10, shifting rates between 3.5 and 3.75%, but signaled at the time a hesitance to cut them further.
“Interest rate reductions aren’t going fast enough,” one survey responder wrote. “If the Fed interest rate gets down to 2%, trucking will take off.”
Another noted interest rates “not getting down to 2% by the first quarter” as a major concern entering 2026.
In both cases, aftermarket sources say the goal is to create more favorable conditions for freight. Even as the channel less impacted by on-highway carrier profitability, aftermarket executives recognize a freight turnaround is required to make the entire parts and service industry go.
A hope is recovery occurs as the year progresses, sources say.
Among TPS survey responders, 60% expect overall aftermarket sales to rise by 2-10% year over year in 2026.
“For 2026 we’re taking a modest, realistic posture. Our goal is to hit our targets, protect the bottom line and outperform the budget if conditions allow, rather than setting overly aggressive expectations,” said Baer.
“I expect the first half of 2026 to remain constrained before conditions begin to improve in the back half of the year,” Bumgardner said. “This perspective extends to the broader aftermarket as well. Our strategy is to continue prudent management through this period while positioning for growth as market confidence returns.”
That tracks with another distributor, who questions if the industry “might see an uptick in freight and demand starting sometime in Q2 into Q3?”
In Canada, Cannon expects another tough year but believes Fort Garry is “well positioned to take advantage” of what it does best. At Freedom, Rutherford anticipates the aftermarket “will remain fragmented but increasingly competitive. Fleets will prioritize uptime and reliability, favoring partners who can deliver consistent availability and value.”
Garafola offers a similar assessment, and says Inland’s focus “remains on aligning operational execution and resource allocation with unpredictable market demands. We continue to do everything possible to stay responsive and efficient, regardless of external volatility.”
That focus is shared across the channel. Many are optimizing operations, making improvements today to prepare for the growth period of tomorrow.
Multiple distributors shared they are undergoing ERP conversions in 2026 to support growth potential, while others cited adding retail operations as priorities.
Callison said Midwest Wheel is “focusing on getting better and better integrating all of our abilities,” including investments into its website, CRM and other tools.
“We have geographically expanded the last four years; [2025] was making sure we have all the tools and processes available to us to be able to continue that growth,” he said.
Brooks has a similar focus. “I think we have a great opportunity in front of us to expand in a couple ways. I really feel like an additional location or e-commerce could be on the near horizon for us, but organic growth as well.”
Another distributor added, “I do not try and crystal ball the future. I just keep our actions very flexible and change as the factors affecting us move either to the positive or the negative.”
The organizations supporting independent aftermarket operations have a similar focus.
Baer said VIPAR Heavy Duty will continue to elevate its digital, data and service offering to offer efficiencies to stockholders and members. He says “many independent distributors do not have the resources to tackle these issues on their own. They rely on us to make the investment.”
“Our biggest opportunity at CVSN is to continue delivering more programs and services focused on elevating our members,” added Kuo, who notes the HR-1566, also known as the REPAIR Act, continues to gain steam in Washington and would be a huge advantage for the aftermarket if it can eventually become law.
“We all have to get better as the aftermarket gets tighter,” he says.
This is Part I of the Trucks, Parts, Service biennial state of the industry report, featuring insights from aftermarket, dealer and commercial vehicle supplier experts.
To read Part II for insights from the dealer channel, CLICK HERE. To read Part III with insights from industry suppliers, CLICK HERE.
