A bad year got worse for commercial truck and trailer dealers in the third quarter, according to responders of our most recent Trucks, Parts, Survey MarketPulse quarterly survey.
Business in the aftermarket was better — with responders rating Q3 as their best since 2023 — but both channels remain tepid about the months ahead. The economic and freight uncertainty leading to the contraction of North American trucking capacity is putting dealer and aftermarket business leaders in a bearish place when business planning for 2026 and beyond.
No responders to the TPS quarterly survey think their business has hit an all-time low, but confidence for a quick market turnaround has been extinguished.
As one dealer responder puts it, “This is a very uncertain time for our industry. Truck demand is the softest it has been since the Great Recession of 2008. Recently announced tariffs have the potential to make a very slow market even slower.”
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Aftermarket sentiment is similar, as one responder states, “Tariffs are making our industry unstable, and the competition is dropping prices to single-digit margins due to truck sales/production being down.”
Third quarter assessments varied across channels
Last quarter marked the largest discrepancy in business conditions among dealer and aftermarket responders in the history of our survey. Dealers evaluated the period as a 5.00 on average on our 1-10 scale (where one is the best quarter ever and 10 is the best), slightly below the 5.05 rating in Q2 and the lowest dealer evaluation in survey history.
How dealer responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
In the aftermarket, however, the assessment of Q3 was much stronger. After giving Q2 a 5.86 rating on our 1-10 scale, aftermarket responders rated Q3 as a 6.14. That is the first time quarterly market assessment by the two segments has been separated by more than 1.00 on our scale. It’s also the strongest quarterly assessment among aftermarket responders since the third quarter of 2023 (6.70).
The inconsistency between the channels in Q3 also was found in other areas of the survey.
When rating Q3 to the same period in 2024, 39% of dealers said their profits were down at least 5% (the same number that reported new equipment sales as their weakest business unit), with another 11% down by a smaller percentage. Conversely, only 5% of aftermarket responders were down at least 5% year over year, with an impressive 24% stating their profitability was actually up at least 5%.
How aftermarket responders have rated quarterly business conditions in the history of TPS MarketPulse survey.
Outside influences much more burdensome for dealers
Though tariffs and the price fluctuations they cause have impacted both segments, on the whole, global economic volatility and domestic policy actions are overwhelmingly hitting dealers harder than the aftermarket.
Two thirds of dealers in our Q3 survey rated “political influence on trucking” as a top five concern, and 61% also stated “regulatory influence on trucking” as a major concern. Aftermarket responders were under 40% for both categories.
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Additionally, while both sides have similar expectations for Q4, dealers appear more likely to right-size their operations due to business conditions. No aftermarket responders are intending to reduce their workforce in the next six months, but 17% of dealers are considering it.
Yet dealers also are more open to expansion — 56% of responders are considering adding a new location, compared to 38% for aftermarket responders — so it’s possible dealer investment potential varies substantially company to company.
Expectations in sync for Q4 before diverging
With dealers expecting the fourth quarter to be a little better and the aftermarket a touch worse than Q3, both segments seem to view the rest of the year on a similar plane.
Dealers responders predict a 5.17 on our 1-10 scale; aftermarket responders a 5.61. Within the channels, all October survey responders expect the fourth quarter to be a 3-7 on our 1-10 scale — meaning no one expects a market collapse or explosion. Aftermarket predictions are mostly in the 5-7 range, dealers in the 4-6 range.
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Its looking into 2026 and comparing quarters to past performance where expectations change. Two thirds of aftermarket responders expect the next six months to be 1 to 5% better than the same period a year ago, with another 5% expecting to be up more than 5% year over year.
In the dealer channel, that positivity doesn’t exist. More than half of dealers expect the next six months to be down year over year (33% down 1-5%, 22% down at least 5%) with another 39% expecting a flat market. Only 6% of dealers see positive quarters ahead, and at a mild 1-5% growth trajectory.
TPS will conduct its 2025 fourth quarter MarketPulse survey in January and publish a brief synopsis of the data after it concludes.
Want to read more insights from our first quarter survey? Or participate in future surveys? We’d love to hear from you.
All truck and trailer dealers and independent aftermarket businesses are encouraged to participate in the TPS MarketPulse survey, and only businesses who choose to participate will receive complete survey results each quarter. For more information, and to register, please email [email protected].
