ACT Research reported Wednesday last month was the weakest opening of new order books in six years with final North American Class 8 orders totaling 20,666 units.
“This was the weakest September for orders since 2019 as tariffs, carrier profits and regulatory limbo continue to drive industry uncertainty,” says Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research. “Worryingly, the new Section 232 [tariffs] on imported trucks risks onerous cost increases come Nov. 1, at a time when industry demand is already under pressure. For-hire carriers remain stuck contending with the longest freight downturn in recent history, and private fleets have pulled back.”
“While capacity is starting to exit the market at a quicker clip, a necessary evil for spot rate improvement, softening demand in the short term will counterbalance tightening supply,” Vieth adds.
He says ACT data shows Class 8 tractor orders totaled 12,654 units, down 26% year over year. The vocational market was deceptively stronger. Well below last year’s record-setting September but historically stable.
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“Vocational Class 8 orders totaled a healthy 8,012 units, down 60% year over year, but that compares to last September’s record vocational order of approximately 20,000 units as new production capacity came online,” Vieth says. “Vocational, like the tractor market, continues to be affected in the short-to-medium term by policy fluctuations related to tariffs, federal funds and regulations.”
Medium-duty orders also were down year over year, falling 19% to 16,133 units.
Vieth says medium-duty orders have slowed notably this year, “as still-elevated inventories, a weaker economic outlook and notably increased consumer pessimism weigh on medium-duty demand.”
