ACT Research's latest Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume Outlook Report shows capacity continues to shrink, and that could be a good thing.
"Class 8 tractor production is on track to decline about 35% from the first half to the second half of this year, to a rate several thousand trucks per month below what is needed to maintain the fleet size," says Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst. "In our view, lower capacity in an otherwise stable demand environment could move the cycle forward and actually create for-hire demand by reversing the insourcing of recent years. But this will take time."
Denoyer says the driver market is no longer loose, but it isn't tight, either.
"The new rules on non-domiciled drivers could tighten driver capacity over the next one to two years, but heavy truck tariff costs are starting to constrain equipment capacity," Denoyer says.
