As tariff threats and an escalating trade war bring fears of recession, ACT Research spots an opportunity in freight rates.
"Even the EPA low-NOx standards initially promulgated by the first Trump administration planned to go into effect in 2027 are now under review," says Tim Denoyer, ACT Research's vice president and senior analyst. "The significant private fleet prebuying in preparation for these rules in recent years is set to end or even reverse as tariffs hit, which is likely to reduce equipment supply. With the freight demand outlook is lower, trade and regulatory turmoil are also supply shocks, which we expect to lead to freight rate inflation later this year."
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Denoyer continued that shippers added to stock ahead of tariffs and deteriorating consumer attitudes suggest for-hire freight recession will roll on in the near term.
"Consumer made extra pre-tariff purchases as well and are likely to pull back on spending as they anticipate higher inflation," he says.
Class 8 tractor sales are already depressed from that recession and capacity is finally tightening after significant expansion.
"This isn't helping the for-hire market yet, but freight demand should still increase seasonally in the coming months and tighter capacity should mitigate the negative effects on freight demand from the trade war," Denoyer says.
