J.D. Power report: October auctions suggest continued late-model truck shortage

Updated Feb 28, 2019

Despite expectations of an increase of heavy-duty truck trade-ins hitting the market, auctions had a low-volume month in October, while the retail segment had another strong month. October’s auction results show a drop in volume compared with September and no marked depreciation, according to this month’s J.D. Power Commercial Truck Guidelines market report.

Model year (MY) 2015 trucks averaged $55,000, $17,000 (31.1 percent) higher than September; MY 2014 trucks averaged $34,500, $250 (0.1 percent) lower than September; MY 2013 trucks averaged $28,350, $600 (2.1 percent) higher than September; MY 2012 trucks averaged $27,750, $1,000 (3.6 percent) higher than September; and MY 2011 trucks averaged $19,500, $2,250 (10.3 percent) lower than September.

“October’s stable pricing, along with a return to a more typical mix of model-year 2015 trucks caused average depreciation in 2018 to turn slightly positive,” J.D. Power reports. “On average, trucks four to six years old are bringing 18.1 percent more money in 2018 compared with 2017.”

In the retail market, with October data still coming in, the numbers below are September results. Pricing for late-model truck trucks pulled back a bit in September compared with August and preliminary data for October indicates similar conditions.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in September was 68 months old, had nearly 455,700 miles and sold for $56,414. Compared with August, the average sleeper was three months newer, had 124 fewer miles (virtually no change) and brought $2,934 (5.5 percent) more money. In September 2017, the average sleeper was one month newer, had 11,620 (2.5 percent) fewer miles and brought $9,470 (20.2 percent) more money.

J.D. Power states average prices in September were as follows:

  • MY 2016: $79,382, $3,498 (4.2 percent) lower than August
  • MY 2015: $64,398, $2,099 (3.4 percent) higher than August
  • MY 2014: $50,983, $650 (1.3 percent) higher than August

Year over year, late-model trucks sold in the first nine months of 2018 brought 8.6 percent more money compared with the same period last year. Depreciation is running 0.2 percent per month in 2018, compared with 1.7 percent a year ago.

Class 8 sales per dealership fell below 5 trucks per rooftop in September to 4.9. “This result matches the year-to-date average and is mildly behind expectations. October volume should come in a few tenths higher,” the report states.

To read the full report, CLICK HERE.

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