FTR and ACT Research Wednesday reported preliminary trailer orders slipped in December to 28,000 and 27,800 units, respectively.
FTR says its total is a 38 percent drop from November and 39 percent below a year ago; ACT’s number was down 39 percent month-over-month and year-over year. FTR says this downswing is trailer order activity moderating after experiencing tremendous levels over the previous three months.
“This drop was expected since the first half of the year is already booked for dry vans and refrigerated vans. Most of the big fleets already have their requirements orders in for 2019,” says Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles.
“Just as dry vans contributed to the long-term order upswing throughout the year, they also contributed significantly to the year-ending softness,” adds Frank Maly, director of CV transportation analysis and research, ACT Research. “While some fleets likely stepped back to assess their 2019 investment plans, our discussions also indicate that some of the slide occurred as OEMs resisted booking additional orders into already-extended backlogs that might have pushed their commitments into 2020.”
Despite the slip, FTR reports total trailers orders of 127,000 units in Q4 2018 were the second highest quarter ever with 2018 totaling 409,800 trailer orders, by far a record year.
“Now the medium and small fleets are searching for the remaining build slots, based on their expected needs in the second half of the year. Flatbed, tanker and dump fleets continue to order at respectable rates, indicating the economy is generating freight demand across various sectors and industries,” says Ake.
Adds Maly, “Full-year results indicated just how robust current fleet investment plans are, as the industry set an all-time record for annual net orders last year. More than 420,000 orders were booked in 2018, up 35 percent from 2017. Most trailer categories posted year-over-year gains, with reefers posting an industry-leading gain of almost 90 percent versus 2017.”
Additionally, ACT states the industry enters 2019 with the highest orderboard in history, committing dry vans and reefers well into Q4 2019, which pushes the overall industry average into early Q4. Vocational trailer categories have shorter, but very solid horizons, the company adds.
