In other news, same dealer sales of used Class 8 equipment took a larger-than-expected hit in November, and trailer orders, while solid, are not following a normal seasonal path.
The report, which combines ACT’s proprietary data analysis across a wide variety of industry sources to paint a comprehensive picture of trends in transportation and commercial vehicle markets, also showed that U.S. economic growth in 2019 is expected to decelerate as monetary policy and supply have become less accommodative, even as the benefits of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act diminish.
“While economic pressures and uncertainty have caused some to raise the specter of a recession, starting in 2019, we think that projecting a recession at this point is premature,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst. “Even though there are signs of weakness, there are also signs of continued strength, not least is the robust December labor market report. That said, we are not suggesting there is no basis for concern, but the weakness of economic activity we project has led us to expect sectoral recessions.”
Regarding the Class 8 market, Vieth says, “The heavy-duty truck market is maintaining its momentum, but the critical question at this point regards cycle duration. We are working to interpret the meaning of falling stock markets, the flight to safety in bonds, the downward spiral in energy and industrial commodity prices and accumulating evidence of a global slowdown, which have caused the perspectives on the next six to eight quarters to become hazy, with downside risks.”
