Preliminary trailer orders for February were at 24,000 units, a 9 percent month-over-month decrease and a 27 percent decrease year over year, according to FTR. ACT’s preliminary estimate for the month was 23,800 units.
February was the third month in row that trailer orders were in the mid-20,000’s as some van OEM’s are basically solid for 2019, with few build slots left open. Dry van fleets that need trailers this year are grabbing whatever build slots they can find, regardless of their historical brand preference, FTR reports. Vocational trailer demand remains stable, but down from the strong order rates a few months ago. Trailer orders for the past 12 months now total 386,000.
“The decent February order volumes mean that backlogs should only decline modestly during March,” says Don Ake, FTR vice president of commercial vehicles. “The trailer market continues to show surprising resilience despite the moderation in economic and freight growth. The current strength of the trailer market is good news for the general economy. It indicates fleets expect sturdy freight demand to continue throughout 2019.”
ACT’s analysis was similar, reporting net orders decreased 9 percent from January volume and were 29 percent below the same month last year.
“The sequential net order decline matches the industry order pattern of the past two years. With the majority of this year’s build slots already committed, and many OEMs unwilling to open next year’s order board this early, the potential for higher gross orders is somewhat limited at this point. Additionally, cancellations were roughly 1 percent of industry backlog last month. While not excessive, that generates some headwinds for net order volumes as well,” says Frank Maly, ACT director of commercial vehicle transportation analysis and research.
“That’s still solid, but softer order count combined with stronger production volumes in February, resulted in a 1 percent decline in industry backlog at month-end,” Maly says. “Backlog has remained relatively stable for the past four months, reaching an all-time high in December. At current production rates, the order board commits the industry into November on average, although dry vans backlogs stretch into mid-December, while reefer commitments actually edge into next year.”
