Engines over 10L are projected to account for more than 85 percent of the Class 8 production between 2020 and 2024, and the trend to smaller displacement engines is expected to continue, according to the recently released “N.A. Commercial Vehicle On-Highway Engine Outlook,” published by ACT Research and Rhein Associates.
“Although the over-14L engine category will remain the largest segment in 2019, there is a trend to smaller displacement engines in the over-10L market segment for Class 8 trucks and tractors, with an acceleration prompted by new emission regulations expected in 2024,” says Tom Rhein, Rhein Associates president.
“In [the Class 5-7] market, the current metric of interest is gasoline penetration, which continues to see share gains,” Rhein says.
“Diesel power is under attack long-term for use in on-highway commercial vehicles. Alternative power is being developed, tested and refined, even as diesel engines are transitioning to become more fuel efficient and clean,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT president and senior analyst.
“Emission regulations are one of the main drivers of alternative fuel adoption, which is why the ‘Engine Outlook’ includes a section on the commercial vehicle regulatory environment,” Veith says.
“While many think this is a California-only phenomenon, we would note that Oregon’s legislators recently voted in favor of a bill to regulate diesel trucks in the Portland metro area and we continue to see reports about various state and federal-level funding for alternative fuel programs that are sending millions of dollars toward these efforts for both commercial and passenger vehicle use,” he says.
