FTR's Trucking Conditions Index in June eased back from May's record 20.4 reading but remains strong at 17.1. The company says lower diesel prices in the month were offset by slightly less robust freight growth.
"We expect the market to be favorable for carriers throughout our two-year forecast horizon, but the recovery appears to be stabilizing," says Avery Vise, FTR's vice president of trucking. "For example, spot rates in July softened as seasonally expected even though fuel prices rose sharply — quite a different dynamic than what occurred in March. Even if spot rates have peaked, contract rates will likely continue to rise well into 2027."
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That means that even though the index is lower, the outlook for carriers is a bit stronger than in May's record month.
"To this point, the truck freight market's strength is principally due to supply-side constraints — especially for dry van and refrigerated operations," Vise continues. "An encouraging signal is the ongoing recovery in manufacturing demand, and consumer spending has been solid. Data center construction clearly has boosted flatbed especially. Concerns include slowing U.S. job growth, a persistently weak housing sector and stubborn price inflation for both consumers and businesses. Although freight demand still doesn't look that strong, we see little sign that trucking capacity will rise substantially in the near term."
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FTR's index tracks five conditions in the U.S. truck market: Freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices and financing costs. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions and a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment.
