TPS readers aren’t the only ones in trucking’s supply chain nervous about tariffs.
During MEMA’s most recent Pulse webinar Wednesday, MEMA Director of Research and Industry Analysis Joe Zaciek shared poll results confirming industry suppliers are equally uneasy about the impact tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico could have on their operations.
Though President Trump has thus far only enacted 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, and 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, his proposed 25% tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico remain in limbo. The President delayed the taxes earlier this month after negotiations with both counties but said Monday during a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron that he anticipates they will “go forward” at a later date.
If that occurs, tariffs on Mexico will likely have the biggest impact on MEMA members.
[RELATED: See what TPS readers think of President Trump's tariff plans]
Zaciek says MEMA’s member polling indicates 27% of manufacturing sourcing for MEMA members comes from south of the border, more than the import rate for China (12%) and Canada (8%) combined. Additionally, while only 19% of MEMA members state the President’s 10% tariff on China is a “significantly negative” impact on their business, that number leaps to 65% when considering a 25% tax on products from Mexico. Another 4% say the Mexican tariffs would be “moderately negative” and 17% “slightly negative,” meaning approximately six out of seven MEMA members will be hurt by a tax on Mexican goods.
Canada’s numbers are slightly better but still discouraging, with 36% of responders stating a 25% tariff would be “significantly negative,” 23% saying “moderately negative” and 9% saying “slightly negative.”
“We are seeing an overwhelmingly negative response to tariffs,” Zaciek says.
And retaliatory tariffs won’t make things any better, MEMA members believe. Zaciek says MEMA’s survey indicates retaliation from Mexico and Canada would be “significantly negative” for 43% and 42% of responders, respectively.
Concerns around China retaliating aren’t as grave, though Zaciek says there are reasons for that too. For one, the 10% tariff is not as extreme as what could hit the border nations. Additionally, China imports much fewer commercial vehicle materials and components than the other nations. Zaciek says if China responds, it is far more likely to export controls and limit what exits its country.
Unsurprisingly, the uncertainty around tariffs (and regulations) has created a wide gulf of projections for truck production within the supplier space.
Zaciek says MEMA members expect Class 8 production to fall from 306,000 units in 2024 to a weighted average of 268,000 units this year. Zaciek uses weighted because the variance of supplier projections are wide. Eighteen percent of suppliers expect production below 220,000 units, while 9% expect more than 300,000 trucks to be built. Most vendors (63%) expect builds to land in the 260,001 to 300,000 range.
Projections for 2026 are equally mixed but slightly higher. Only 9% of vendors see production below 220,000 units, while 54% anticipate 300,000 builds or more for a weighted average of 297,000 units.
