ACT analysts say a 2027 pre-buy may have started in the vocational market.
Orders for heavy vocational trucks started heating up in September, the company says, and has continued to grow in early 2025. That suggests work truck buyers are looking to get in front of the 2027 NOx emissions regulations.
[RELATED: FTR sorts through early 2025 data]
"Vocational build per day rose to a level not seen since 2006, at 513 units per day in November, and blew past that level to 537 units per day in December, says Kenny Vieth, ACT's president and senior analyst. "Importantly, we note the vocational market's chokepoint has not been capacity-constrained OEM components, but body-builder capacity constraints."
Retail sales continue to lag behind build rates, but was rising at the end of 2024, averaging a 111,000 annualized rate in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, tractor sales were soft into 2025.
"The industry's capacity to sell finished products to end users could well be the limiting factor for production in 2025," Vieth says, calling tractor demand "more suspect."
ACT published the data in the latest release of the North American Commercial Vehicle Outlook.
