ACT Research reported Friday it has updated its vocational truck outlook for 2025 and beyond thanks to exceptionally strong orders over the fall months.
The company states in September the industry reported an all-time best month for heavy vocational truck orders at 20,000 units, which was followed by 9,500 units last month. Coupled with strong topline orders in November, the company states it is “not too much of a stretch” to imagine between 9,000 and 10,000 orders again in November.
All of which bodes well for the vocational segment moving forward.
“Last month, we boosted our vocational truck outlook for the 2025 and 2026 on solid fundamentals: U.S. industrial policy and infrastructure spending stimulus plans have manufacturing and private construction expenditures running at record levels,” says Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst. “And much of the ~$2 trillion in stimulus (CHIPS, IRA, IIJA) put in place in 2021 and 2022 continues to be deployed into the economy, providing healthy tailwinds. To date, only around 40% of that money has been deployed.”
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Vieth states with well supported end markets and technology forcing regs on the horizon, “vocational truck buyers not only have a willingness to get a head start on refreshing their fleets, but clearly, the ability as well.”
“While we always caution that one month does not make a trend, orders the past two months suggest queuing for 2026 (EPA 2027) has begun. With tractor demand suspect, vocational truck production appears to be well supported into 2025,” Vieth says.
