Preliminary Class 8 truck orders were back on the upswing in November. ACT Research reported preliminary orders of 37,200 units, up 21% from October. FTR reported orders of 33,500 units, up 12% month over month.
From a historical perspective, both firms state the totals are down from 2023, though FTR adds September through November orders are up 1% year over year. FTR also notes average November order level over the past seven years is 30,393 units, which signals a slight positive momentum for the 2025 order season.
“Despite a sluggish freight market, fleets have continued to invest in new equipment, mainly at replacement demand levels so far in 2024. We expect a modest rise in November backlogs once the final Class 8 market data is released later this month,” says Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles.
Kenny Vieth, ACT Research president and senior analyst, has a similar assessment.
“We are still in the early stages of the industry’s building of 2025 backlogs, but through November, seasonally strong orders have made little progress in closing the backlog gap compared to year-ago levels,” he says. “While up from October, orders were 11% below last November’s performance. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Class 8 orders jumped 42% from October to 34,800 units, 418,000 [seasonally adjusted annual rate].”
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Year-to-date, FTR says order performance has slightly surpassed replacement demand levels, averaging 22,473 orders per month. As of November, year-to-date orders were up 9% year over year. North American Class 8 orders are at 273,413 units for the last 12 months, FTR adds.
In the medium-duty market, Vieth says Classes 5-7 orders continued “their consistent, if slowly deflating, trajectory into historically elevated truck and bus backlogs.” Preliminary orders were 16,500 units, down 30% from 2023 and the third weakest total of the year, he adds.
Additionally, while it may be too early to know if November's order bump was spurred by political reasons, Moyer states the recent presidential election could soon begin affecting the commercial vehicle market.
“The solid month-over-month increase in net orders might reflect some fleets choosing to place orders following the conclusion of the November U.S. elections, but the election impact might not end there,” he says.
Moyer cites President-elect Donald Trump's November announcement to impose tariffs as one of his first executive orders, proposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Moyer states more than 40% of Class 8 trucks built for the U.S. market currently are built in Mexico.
“The announcement presents challenges for the commercial vehicle industry already grappling with preparations for 2027 U.S. EPA NOx regulations, further straining supply chains and costs. While the late-November announcement likely had minimal impact on orders for the month, orders over the next month or so could see a boost as fleets aim to preempt potential tariffs. If tariffs take effect in [the first quarter of] 2025, OEMs may struggle to quickly ramp up production beforehand due to labor and supply chain constraints, especially during the slow production months of December to February. High Class 8 inventory levels could partially meet any surge in retail demand.”
