Dave Kalvelage says a forecast out to 2050 is bound to be wrong, but it is a way to get people thinking. Especially about alternative fuels and powertrains, where options abound and the way forward can look, at best, muddy.
"This is a pretty plausible forecast for the different powertrains," Kalvelage says. "We know it's a lot of what-ifs, but it's something to get you thinking about the future."
Derek Kaufman is a managing partner in Schwartz Advisors. He presented a forecast that sees a mixed outlook for powertrains along with Kalvelage's analysis Monday at the Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue ahead of Heavy Duty Aftermarket Week in Dallas.
"We get it," he says. "The EPA/CARB hate fossil fuels. But we think the BET/EV solutions they're pushing outstrips the infrastructure."
Kaufman says some California dealerships may see up to a 90% drop in trucks sold this year over last. Dealers just don't have the trucks on the lot to sell that can meet the regulations.
Here are some of what Kalvelage and Kaufman see in heavy duty's future.
Battery electric trucks will comprise up to 10% of the market by 2030, Kaufman says. "That's more in keeping with infrastructure's availability to support it," he says.
