The North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) has released its third report from Run on Less – Messy Middle, Forecasting the TCO of Powertrain Alternatives: The Messy Middle Cost Report.
NACFE says this report is designed to guide fleet owners and their partners through the financial realities of transitioning to alternative powertrains by analyzing the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) across four distinct commercial powertrains: legacy diesel, compressed natural gas/renewable natural gas (CNG/RNG), battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV). By combining real-world operational data from Run on Less – Messy Middle with industry trends, this report provides baseline TCO estimates across multiple duty cycles and forward-looking timeframes.
“The core takeaway is that there is no universal TCO; it’s a custom calculation that changes with every zip code and duty cycle,” says Emilia Sibley, lead author of the report and NACFE’s emerging technologies consultant. “While we’ve forecasted parity dates across the board, the real goal of this report is to help fleets outrun those projections. We’re giving fleet owners the framework to start capturing the financial upside of the Messy Middle today.”
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NACFE says the report focuses solely on Class 8 vehicles, includes multiple fuel choices, grounds its assumptions in real-world data — from Run on Less – Messy Middle and other sources — provides forecasts out to 2035, accounts for duty cycles and utilization and highlights the variables that matter when determining TCO. Critically, the analysis assumes zero incentives in its TCO calculations. This provides a worst-case scenario that reveals when parity occurs organically through technology improvements and operational savings, NACFE adds.
“TCO analysis is more than just a math exercise; it’s a strategic framework that allows fleets to look past the sticker price and see the true long-term value of an asset,” says Gerard Westhoff, senior associate, Carbon-free Transportation at RMI. “By balancing upfront capital with lifetime energy and maintenance savings, we can move beyond guesswork and accurately project which technologies will win in the market.”
Additionally, the report provides fleets with an action plan for constructing a TCO analysis that is tailored to their fleet-specific routes and costs and a step-by-step analysis exercise to help fleets determine which powertrains make sense in their various duty cycles.
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Based on NACFE’s 2025 to 2035 modeling and sensitivity analysis, NACFE offers the following conclusions for fleet owners and industry stakeholders:
- TCO Is Bespoke, Not Universal: There is no single date when parity is achieved. Parity is an operational window defined by a fleet's specific geography, duty cycle, and costs.
- BEVs Are the Long-Term Economic Winners: Driven by a projected 45% drop in vehicle purchase prices and superior energy efficiency, BEVs achieve the lowest Net TCO across all modeled duty cycles by 2035.
- Return-to-Base and Drayage Are BEV “Goldilocks” Lanes: Regional RTB and drayage cycles offer the strongest immediate case for electrification, benefiting from high mileage routes and predictable depot charging.
- Diesel’s Financial Advantage Is Finite: The era of diesel as the undisputed low-cost leader is ending. Rising costs for emissions compliance, specialized maintenance, fuel price shocks, and insurance are creating a diesel cost escalator that eventually will push its Net TCO above zero-emission alternatives in every duty cycle.
- CNG/RNG Is the Near-Term Hedge: For fleets seeking a pragmatic, infrastructure-ready exit ramp from rising diesel costs, CNG/RNG offers the most mature alternative. While eventually overtaken by BEVs on a pure per-mile basis, its ability to match diesel performance in long-haul and weight-sensitive lanes makes it a useful bridge in the Messy Middle.
- FCEV’s Niche Is Defined by Speed and Payload: While currently the most expensive option, FCEVs represent a possible choice for high vehicle miles traveled, heavy-haul over-the-road lanes where payload capacity and rapid fueling are non-negotiable.
This is the third of five reports surrounding Run on Less – Messy Middle. NACFE plans to publish two additional reports throughout 2026 — an emissions report and a final findings report.
To download a copy of the NACFE report, please CLICK HERE.
