Derek Kaufman, managing partner at Schwarz Advisors, speaks at Service Opportunities Learning Days (SOLD) 2017 on Sunday at the Mirage in Las Vegas.The independent aftermarket service industry was founded, and has thrived for many decades, on mechanical intelligence. Service providers have always been the guys who know how to fix things.
But as industry technology and vehicle sophistication has changed, the number of parts and systems requiring good old-fashioned mechanical how-know to service has changed as well.
Getting a truck back on the road today takes more than an innate understanding of a clutch mechanism, or the quickest way to install an A/C compressor. It also requires computer skills, and an ability to use software and advanced tools to diagnose and reset complicated vehicle systems.
That may sound daunting, even downright intimidating, for some service providers. But Derek Kaufman says in truth it could be the opposite.
When trucks become computers on wheels, it’s not the aftermarket who is going to be pushed out of the service channel, Kaufman says. It’s vehicle owners.
“The secondary buyer who services his truck at home” is about to be priced out in-house repairs, Kaufman told service providers Sunday in a keynote presentation at Service Opportunities Learning Days (SOLD) 2017 in Las Vegas. “The independent aftermarket can become industry experts and can service these customers and handle their future service needs.”
During his presentation Sunday, Kaufman presented his expert opinion on technology nearing the horizon of the commercial truck market, and steps the aftermarket can take today to prepare to install, diagnose and repair this technology when it finally hits the road.
Starting with engine and powertrain advancements, Kaufman expects alternative fuels to slowly earn market share in the next five years. He pegs natural gas as the bigger gainer, predicting the fuel climbing to as high as “10 to 20 percent” market share in the next decade.
Electrification is going to make inroads as well. Kaufman doesn’t anticipate the future Class 8 truck to go electrical, but he does note specific components—water pumps, turbochargers, A/C compressors, etc.—are moving away from conventional power sources.
That said, he adds diesel isn’t going anywhere.
“Diesel has a future and always is going to have a future,” he says. He references a quote from Daimler truck boss Wolfgang Bernhard about his company’s long-term commitment to diesel. “It’s pretty much the perfect fuel,” Kaufman says.
Looking to the rest of the truck, Kaufman cites vehicle safety and aerodynamics as two areas of rapid growth—and two areas where the aftermarket can thrive.
He predicts Lane Departure Warning systems as a likely target for a future NHTSA mandate, while Forward Collision Avoidance Cameras are more likely to be accepted by OEMs and fleets.
These products—and disc brakes, which Kaufman also says is nearing a boom—are all systems that can be sold for retrofit and serviced in the aftermarket.
The aerodynamic product rise is linked more to EPA’s Phase 2 emission regulations and a corresponding acceptance of the technology from vehicle owners.
Kaufman also mentions the service experience as an area likely to change. He teases augmented reality as a long-, long-term future for service technicians.
“I believe this is the way we’re going to attract new techs to the industry,” he says.
