The Auto Care Association and Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) released their jointly produced “2020 Joint Channel Forecast Model” last week, which forecast an 8.8 percent decrease in automotive aftermarket sales for 2020.
“The aftermarket has had a difficult first-half of 2020. As industry businesses assess the impact and look to navigate the road ahead, there are a few certainties that provide a silver lining: DIY and e-commerce are growing during the pandemic, and early indicators show that that the average age of vehicles on the road will continue to rise as consumers hold on to their aging vehicles during economic uncertainty,” says Bill Hanvey, president and CEO, Auto Care Association.
“Juxtaposing the data surrounding this event with other crises and observing these indicators further reinforce this industry’s tremendous ability to bounce back from downturns and in many cases, take advantage of new opportunities presented to us through technology.”
AASA President and COO Paul McCarthy adds, “Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the joint channel forecast shows the continued strength and resilience of the automotive aftermarket will lead to a brighter 2021.
“Despite a year of immense challenges and uncertainty, the foundation of our industry’s key drivers remains strong. Miles driven continue to rise as global economies reopen, new technologies continue to emerge, and the desire to be with friends and family will propel further car usage. We are still facing a lot of challenges, but this forecast confirms the essential attractiveness of the aftermarket.”
The joint forecast model also predicts that total light-duty aftermarket sales will grow from $281 billion in 2020 to $314 billion in 2021.
The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of the Auto Care Association and AASA by IHS Markit, a leading business intelligence firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Census, IMR Inc., and proprietary economic analysis and forecasting models from IHS Markit.